In the biggest mismatch of the divisional round, the Houston Texans and New England Patriots are set to collide in the Saturday night timeslot. The Patriots were able to handle Houston easily in Week 3 without Tom Brady. This time, the future Hall-of-Famer will be under center, but the Texans still boast the best defense in the NFL in total yards allowed, but can Brock Osweiler lead this Houston offense against New England?
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NFL Playoff Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texans +16
Patriots -16
Over/Under 44.5
Odds Analysis
The Patriots are the biggest divisional round favorites in 18 years. New England is expected to win and win big, but giving up 18-points in a playoff game is really hard to do.
New England did already beat Houston by 27-points in a Week 3 shutout. Osweiler couldn’t effectively lead this offense against the Patriots defense and Lamar Miller was nothing more than mediocre in the game. On the flip side, LeGarrette Blount tore up the Houston defense on the ground and managed to put 27-points on the board despite their third stringer, Jacoby Brissett, under center.
The spread and total are holding reasonably steady since they were released. New England has covered the spread now in five straight games and in 13 of 16 games all season. Houston, on the other hand, has been far less predictable. The team had a three game losing streak ATS to close out the regular season and dropped six of their last seven regular season games ATS. They did rebound to cover against Oakland in the Wild Card game, however.
Team and Coaching Playoff History
Houston won its first playoff game since topping Cincinnati in the Wild Card game back in 2012, but this is a Texans team that has yet to make it past the divisional round of the playoffs in the now 15-years since the team was formed.
As for Bill O’Brien, the former Patriots’ coach and offensive coordinator, was calling plays for New England in Super Bowl XLVI. Like many coaches in the game, he’s a graduate of Bill Belichick’s system so that adds an extra intrigue to this game. Belichick has praised O’Brien as one of the better coaches in the game heading into the matchup.
While O’Brien has plenty of playoff coaching experience as a member of Belichick’s staff, this season is his first chance at calling the shots in the NFL postseason. Belichick, of course, is a four time Super Bowl Champion and six time AFC Champion. All of those titles, obviously, have come during his stint in New England. The Patriots have made the playoffs in eight straight seasons now and have advanced at least as far as the conference championship game in five straight seasons. They’re in excellent position to make that six years in a row on Saturday night.
Recent Games of Note
In the Wild Card game, Osweiler played well and was able to lead this offense to 27-points. In doing so, however, he didn’t exactly throw the team on his shoulders, completing only 14-passes for 168 yards and a score. He did add 15 yards and a score on the ground, giving the offense an extra dimension. At the same time, Lamar Miller rushed for 73 yards and touchdown, but it took 31 carries to do so.
Defensively, the Texans looked like the top ranked defense they were based on the numbers. They picked off Connor Cook three times and allowed to just 203 total yards of offense. Playing a Cook-led Oakland team, however, is not the same as a Brady-led Patriots offense.
The Week 3 battle between these two teams was already explored above when looking at the lopsided odds. That commanding victory was undoubtedly a significant reason why the spread is so large. It’s hard to deny that the Patriots team that the Texans will face on Saturday is far superior to the one that trounced them at the start of the year.
New England has lost just one games since Brady returned in Week 5, falling short against Seattle coming off the bye. That game was in Foxborough against a good defensive team, much like Houston. In that game, the Pats had enjoyed a week off, much like they have this weekend. So, there’s some precedent of an upset victory despite what we saw in Week 3.
After that loss, however, the Pats went on to win seven straight, going 6-1 ATS as the favorites in each and every game.
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