After an inconsistent start to the season, Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston, the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft, can get his first signature win with an upset of the unbeaten Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Winning at home is something the Buccaneers aren’t used to, having lost 10 straight at Raymond James Stadium going 2-8 ATS with the under at 3-7 during that stretch.
ODDS
Carolina opened as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 40. Early money on the home team brought the line down to -3 while the total inched up to 40.5. Tampa Bay has struggled at home losing 10 straight while going 2-8 ATS, but there luck has to change sometime.
KEY INJURIES
Charles Johnson – Was placed on short-term injured reserve after he suffered a severe hamstring injury last weekend against the Saints. The same injury slowed Johnson during training camp and for parts of the 2014 season. The Panthers acquired Jared Allen from the Bears to take over at defensive end.
Thomas Davis – Injured his shoulder and was limited in the second half last week. Rookie Shaq Thompson stepped into the linebacker spot and played well.
Gerald McCoy – The Pro Bowl defensive tackle has been playing with a shoulder injury that has limited his effectiveness in the Bucs interior. He is likely to play on Sunday with Henry Melton ready to step in if needed.
KEY MISMATCH
Rookie kicker Kyle Brindza had an awful game in Tampa Bay’s 19-9 loss in Houston last week. But after missing three field goals and an extra point, coach Lovie Smith gave the kicker a vote of confidence, saying, “Kyle is our kicker.” Even the mathematically disadvantaged could probably figure out that the 10 points he left on the board accounted for the entire margin of defeat. Two of the missed field goals would have given Tampa Bay the lead and changed the focus of the game, something that led Texans defensive end J.J. Watt to point out that Brindza “helped us out a little bit.” Brindza did make a 58-yard field goal on his first try of the day, the second-longest in Bucs history, before things spiraled out of control. The Panthers have been solid in that area with Graham Gano kicking. Gano has missed three field goals this year, two coming from beyond 50 yards and another getting blocked. He has made all eight of his PATs and has missed just three in 166 career tries.
KEY STAT
22.5 – Tampa Bay’s third-down conversions rate. The Bucs converted just one of 12 third downs last week and were hindered by several dropped passes. The Panthers are allowing opponents to convert third downs just 34.9 percent of the time.
BETTING ANGLE
Now in his second season as coach of the Bucs and Lovie Smith has yet to taste victory in a regular season game at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay won two games last season, posting wins at Pittsburgh and Washington, and also won a preseason game at Buffalo. Smith didn’t get his first home win until the start of his second season, when the Bucs beat Cincinnati in the second exhibition game of 2015. Tampa Bay’s loss to Tennessee in the opener left Smith and the Bucs winless in nine regular season games during his tenure. Smith and the Bucs are encouraged that the streak will end soon behind Jameis Winston, who Smith says is making strides weekly. Smith was disappointed with last week’s result, but noted the team is 1-0 within the NFC South after not winning any division games last year.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Bucs are close to being a good team and the more experience and game action the youngsters get, the better they’re going to be. I’m not talking about winning the division good, I’m talking about building up to a .500 record good. Winston has been inconsistent, but he hasn’t gotten a lot of help from the guys around him. Too many drops and too many penalties stalled numerous drives last week, preventing Tampa from coming out ahead in what was a winnable game. The O-line has looked much better, in turn allowing Winston to be more effective using his outstanding wideouts in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Carolina hasn’t overpowered anybody and barely got by New Orleans without Drew Brees and a leaky defense. Makes me think the Panthers are ripe for a takedown.
Tampa Bay 26, Carolina 24
BookMaker opened the spread for this Sunday game at -3.5 in favor of the Panthers. The NFL odds total surfaced at 40. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The game between the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will start at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4, 2015, at Raymond James Stadium. The contest will be broadcast regionally on FOX.
