The Detroit Lions are presented with a great opportunity to get their first win of the season. The Lions are 4-0 in their NFC North rivalry with the Chicago Bears over the last two seasons and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. But the Lions are also a mess this season and were booed off the Ford Field turf following last week’s blowout loss.
ODDS
Winless Detroit opened as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 44. The Lions have won four straight in the series and are 5-0 ATS in their last five when favored against Chicago. While the line held firm, the total dropped to 43.5.
KEY INJURIES
Shea McClellin – Is out for an indefinite period of time after sustaining a knee injury last week. LaRoy Reynolds finished the game at inside linebacker for the Bears next to Christian Jones, who will now be the defensive signal-caller.
Jacquizz Rodgers – Was placed on injured reserve with a fractured right forearm sustained in last week’s win at Kansas City. Jeremy Langford is expected to supplant Rodgers as Matt Forte’s primary backup. Ka’Deem Carey also could receive an expanded role.
DeAndre Levy – Will undergo hip surgery and will be lost to the Lions indefinitely. The team’s starting linebacker made his first appearance of the season in last week’s loss to Arizona only to aggravate the hip injury that had kept him out of the lineup. Josh Bynes will likely start against the Bears.
KEY MISMATCH
Standing in the pocket and firing away at the Lions defense won’t work, even though Detroit gave up 42 points to Arizona last week. The way to beat the Lions defense is to run first, and do it largely against the interior of the line. Detroit’s tackles have been more effective caving in the line of scrimmage on the pass rush than at stopping up the middle runs and they won’t have tackle Haloti Ngata. So running Matt Forte behind his guards or using play-action to tight end Martellus Bennett – or whichever receiver happens to be healthy – will allow Jay Cutler time to stand in against a Lions front that hasn’t had a lot of pass-rush success. Backups Langford and Carey might even inflict damage in this one since both seem more adaptable to one-cut, downhill styles that would work better against the Lions 4-3 defense. The Bears might even be able to get intermediate or cover-2 beaters deep with play-action. This will depend on whether they finally get Alshon Jeffery back, and if Cutler can continue to find Marquess Wilson as in the past two games.
KEY STAT
16.6 – Points per game for Detroit’s 30th-ranked offense. The Lions have been held to fewer than 20 points in their last four games. Chicago allows 28.4 points per game, but has given up just 18.5 per game during its two-game win streak.
BETTING ANGLE
Even though the Lions are 0-5 on the season and 1-4 ATS, they’ve only really been blown out once – last week at home by Arizona 42-17. The Lions actually led 7-0 in that game before a barrage of turnovers provided the Cardinals with several short fields and they took advantage. Two weeks ago the Lions came up short with an inspired effort in Seattle, losing 13-10 but covering as 10-point dogs. Just before that they only trailed undefeated Denver 14-12 well into the fourth quarter before surrendering the final 10 points of the game, missing the cover as three-point home dogs. And back in the season opener Detroit led San Diego 21-3 before collapsing in a 33-28 loss as a four-point underdog. Basically, the Lions are only a few plays from being a 3-2 ATS team.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Bears started the season with three straight losses and looked like a lost cause during their 26-0 loss at Seattle three weeks ago. But Cutler returned from his hamstring injury and suddenly Chicago has two straight wins, including a come from behind victory as 10-point dogs at KC last week. We’ve seen the good Cutler before, and when he’s good he can carry a team. Too often we’ve seen the bad Cutler. Right now the Bears are experiencing the good and Cutler is thriving under coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase. He’s been doing it without his top two receiving targets as both Jeffery and Eddie Royal continue to nurse injuries. Chicago has outgained four of five opponents this season and comes in riding the momentum of a two-game winning streak. Detroit has been outgained in four of five and carries the burden of a five-game losing streak. The Bears look like the smart play here.
Chicago 24, Detroit 20
The NFL odds for this Sunday contest were first released by BookMaker and the Lions were positioned as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 44. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
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