The Chiefs opened as an overwhelming favorite against the Bears for their matchup on Sunday, and why not. Chicago has failed to score a point on the road this season – albeit it was only one game – and failed to cover as double-digit dogs. The -10 opening line is clearly an indication some believe Kansas City is better than its 1-3 record indicates.
ODDS
The Chiefs were pegged as a 10-point favorite with a total of 46.5 when the line first hit the board. The spread was wagered down a point to -9 within a day while the total dropped to 46. Both teams have been poor against the spread with each at 1-3 this season. The Bears are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road.
KEY INJURIES
Will Montgomery – Fractured his fibula on the third play of last week’s game and is out indefinitely. Matt Slauson moved over from his left guard spot to play center in the win over the Raiders with Patrick Omameh replacing Slauson. The Bears will have to decide to stick with Slauson at center or elevate rookie Hroniss Grasu to the starting lineup.
Josh Mauga – Exited last week’s game early with a thigh injury and didn’t return. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday’s game with Chicago. Ramik Wilson is likely to see some snaps, even if Mauga plays.
KEY MISMATCH
The Chiefs must find a way to protect quarterback Alex Smith, who was sacked five times in last week’s loss to Cincinnati and hit on 10 other occasions. He’s been sacked 19 times already this season, the most in the NFL. “It’s too much,” said coach Andy Reid. “We have to tighten that up and keep working on it.” Negative plays like the five sacks directly contributed to Kansas City’s inability to score a touchdown, despite 461 yards of offense. The Bears have struggled to get to the quarterback and if given a little extra time, Smith and receiver Jeremy Maclin could make them pay. The two continue to build chemistry with Maclin catching seven first half passes for 97 yards last week and totaling 148 yards on 11 catches. The Bears could be without safety Antrel Rolle, who injured his ankle last week. If Rolle can’t play, the Bears might have rookies Adrian Amos and Harold Jones-Quartey starting at the safety spots.
KEY STAT
31.3 – The teams are tied for last in the NFL in scoring defense. The difference could be Kansas City’s offense, which scores an average of 25 points, compared to Chicago’s 17 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
Jay Cutler’s comeback came at the perfect time for a Bears team that many believed had thrown in the towel. Chicago’s inspired play against Oakland destroyed the idea that the team had abandoned all hope after the front office began trading away players last week. But Cutler’s quick return from a hamstring injury energized the locker room, reassuring everyone that the team can be not only competitive, but actually win games. The Bears feel confident they can win on the road against a desperate Chiefs team. The defense has performed much better recently, with the contributions of Pernell McPhee, Jarvis Jenkins and Eddie Goldman impressive. Special teams are so-so, but there is nothing wrong with Robbie Gould’s right leg. Cutler, however, remains the key. He continues to turn the ball over, with costly interceptions in all three games he’s started, but last week, the difference was he recovered.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We now get a chance to see how the Chiefs stack up against some of the lesser teams in the league. With all three of their losses coming against teams that have yet to lose a game, the Chiefs will be looking to take out some of their frustrations against the Bears. But they’ll need to get into the end zone to do it. KC moved the ball at will last week against a good Bengals defense, but stalled once inside the red zone and settled for seven field goals. The Chiefs shouldn’t have a problem hitting paydirt against the Bears, who allow 31.3 points per game. Unfortunately, so do the Chiefs, and the teams are tied for last in the NFL in scoring defense. The Bears showed some fight last week in a comeback win over the Raiders, but they are still transitioning and the Chiefs are in desperation mode. The Bears should keep it close and cover the spread, but they will lose the game.
Kansas City 28, Chicago 22
BookMaker sent out the NFL odds for this Sunday game at Kansas City -10 with a total of 46.5. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, totals and spreads. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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