All the Andy Dalton bashers can stay quiet for at least another week after the Bengals’ quarterback put on a masterful fourth quarter and overtime display against Seattle’s vaunted defense last week, leading Cincinnati to its fifth straight victory to start the season. It’s the Bengals best start in over a decade and they’re a near perfect 4-0-1 ATS.
ODDS
The Bengals opened as a 3-point road favorite with the total at 43. Buffalo is 1-2 ATS at home this season and lost the last two straight up as the favored team. The Bills are 3-0 SU and ATS when positioned as the underdog and they are also 5-1 ATS in the last six against Cincy.
KEY INJURIES
Tyrod Taylor – Buffalo’s starting quarterback sustained a sprained MCL in his left knee last week and is questionable to play on Sunday. He’s been limited in practice and might not be cleared to play until later in the week. If Taylor is unable to play, backup E.J. Manuel will take the snaps.
LeSean McCoy – Seems unlikely to be back from his hamstring injury, despite returning to practice, and backup Karlos Williams needs to pass the league’s concussion protocol. Dan Herron and Anthony Dixon are the only healthy running backs on the Bills roster right now.
KEY MISMATCH
Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is off to the best start of his five-year career. He’s thrown for an average of 303.6 yards with 11 touchdowns and only two picks, giving him a 115.6 passer rating that’s third in the NFL behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Star receiver A.J. Green and tight end Tyler Eifert are benefitting the most from Dalton’s precision. Green is fourth in the NFL with 495 receiving yards, while Eifert is tied for second with five touchdown catches. Dalton showed his emergence as a fourth-quarter comeback artist last week, going 13 of 15 for 135 yards in the final quarter and overtime as the Bengals rallied from 17 points down for a 27-24 win over Seattle. He finished 30 of 44 for 331 yards with two touchdowns in the comeback that matched the second-largest in franchise history. Buffalo’s weakness on defense is in the secondary as they allow 274 passing yards per game. The group took a hit last week with the loss of starting safety Aaron Williams to a neck injury.
KEY STAT
14.0 – Buffalo’s quarterback sacks allowed. The Bills have given up the seventh-most sacks in the NFL. Cincinnati gets after the opposing quarterback with a quick and athletic front seven, posting 15 sacks this season, the sixth-highest total in the league.
BETTING ANGLE
Buffalo is 3-2 both SU and ATS this season after edging Tennessee 14-13 last week. Playing without several key players, the Bills trailed 10-0 late in the third quarter, but Taylor scampered into the end zone from 22 yards out, then connected with Chris Hogan on a two-yard scoring pass with five minutes left for the game winner. Without their top two running backs, the Bills were still able to outrush Tennessee 127-97. For the year Buffalo has outgained four of five opponents on the ground. That’s a good way to cover spreads in the NFL. So far this betting season, teams that have won the ground battles are 42-21 SU and 41-20 ATS. Buffalo’s top three rushers are likely out, but that won’t stop the Bills from pounding the ball on the ground. Cincy is not known for its road prowess over recent seasons, going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven as road favorites. And the Bills have had plenty of success against the Bengals with a 10-2 SU and ATS record in the last 12.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Cincinnati is rolling behind Dalton, while Buffalo is banged up. The Bills are now forced to start Manuel at quarterback if Taylor can’t go. The backfield is also a mess with McCoy and Williams likely out, leaving the Bills shorthanded. It looks like they will get receiver Sammy Watkins back, which could open up the passing game a bit, but Manuel isn’t much of a threat throwing the football. The Bills relied on defense to get a win at Tennessee last week, but the Bengals are not the Titans. Cincy’s offense has been electric with Dalton looking like an early season MVP candidate. The offensive line has been stellar in pass protection and opening holes for Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, and the defense is pretty good, too, though overshadowed by the offensive exploits. The Bengals will lose a game at some point, just not this week.
Cincinnati 27, Buffalo 18
The NFL spread for this Sunday game was first available at BookMaker Sportsbook and the Bengals surfaced as 3-point chalk. The total opened at 43. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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