The Cincinnati Bengals will try to turn around a negative betting trend when they visit the Oakland Raiders in Sunday’s season opener. The Bengals enter as a field goal favorite, but are just 1-6 ATS in their past seven when playing as road chalk, losing four of those games straight up.
The Raiders look to continue their small run of success from last season when they split the final six games.
ODDS
Cincinnati opened as a 3-point favorite. You could make a case for the Raiders to cover if the number was closer to touchdown, but a field goal makes the Bengals a better option. The total hit the board at 44 and has since dropped a point to its current 43. Cincinnati takes an early lead and controls the ground game giving the under value.
KEY INJURIES
Carlos Dunlap – His absence from practice with what the team termed an illness raised some concerns. All indications are that the Bengals defensive end will play.
Menelik Watson – Was to be the Raiders’ starting left tackle until he ruptured his Achilles in the third preseason game. Veteran Donald Penn slides into the vacated starting spot.
Andre Holmes – Continues to deal with a sore hand that cost him an opportunity to compete for the Raiders’ No. 3 receiver. He’s likely to miss the opener with Rod Streater moving up the depth chart.
KEY MISMATCH
While all the attention is focused on quarterback Andy Dalton and his failure to produce a postseason win, the Bengals will rely on a heavy dose of the running game this season behind Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Hill ran for 1,124 yards in his rookie season and was the NFL’s leading rusher over the second half of the season. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson believes in smash mouth football, punish the opposing defenders up front with a massive offensive line, and let his sneaky backs run through the holes. Hill will get a majority of the carries, but Bernard is no slouch when it’s his turn. He was the starter last season before being supplanted by Hill and totaled 680 yards. The pair gives Cincinnati an explosive one-two punch to compete in the physical AFC North. The Raiders ranked 22nd in the league in rush defense last season, giving up 119.4 yards per game and could be exploited by Cincy’s talented backs.
KEY STAT
20 – The Bengals’ league-low sack total last season. If Raiders quarterback Derek Carr gets time to throw, he has downfield weapons in first-round pick Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, giving Oakland hope of pulling off the upset.
BETTING ANGLE
With a stocked roster and a chip on their shoulder, the Bengals are a trendy pick in the AFC. Beating teams like the Raiders would go a long way toward validating that selection. Cincinnati offensive coordinator Hue Jackson will have a little added incentive on Sunday. Jackson was fired as Oakland’s head coach after his only season at the helm when the club went 8-8 in 2011. He was the teams OC the previous season when Oakland was also 8-8. Though he claims to be over the dismissal, Jackson is quick to note that those two teams collected the most wins in a season for the Raiders since they advanced to the Super Bowl with 11 victories in 2002. Clearly Jackson isn’t over the firing and is looking forward to facing his old team and their general manager Reggie McKenzie, who cut Jackson loose.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Cincinnati’s postseason problems are well documented, going without a playoff win since 1990. But the Bengals have enjoyed plenty of success during the regular season, finishing among the top two teams in the AFC North in four of the past six years. They could have their best collection of talent during that run. Success hinges on quarterback Andy Dalton, who vapor locked again in last season’s playoffs. He’s surrounded with playmakers and if the Bengals are to end their postseason jinx they need to get there first, and they simply cannot lose a game like this.
Cincinnati 26, Oakland 17
BookMaker opened the spread for this Sunday game at -3 in favor of the Bengals. The NFL betting lines total surfaced at 44. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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