Rams rookie Todd Gurley can further his push for the league’s rookie of the year with another standout game against Cleveland’s NFL-worst run defense. Since being fully integrated into St. Louis’ backfield two games ago, Gurley has amassed 305 yards to put himself in the conversation. Cleveland will have a tough time keeping its streak of over plays going against a strong Rams D. The Browns have played above the final total in all six games.
ODDS
St. Louis opened as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 42.5. Cleveland covered in its last three games and is 4-2 ATS overall while cashing the over in all six games. The total was wagered to 42 and points could be hard to come by, giving the under some value.
KEY INJURIES
Joe Haden – Remains in the league’s concussion protocol after missing last week’s game and is questionable to play on Sunday. Safety Tashaun Gipson also remains questionable with an ankle injury leaving the Browns secondary depleted. Pierre Desir replaced Haden at cornerback and Jordan Poyer has filled in for Gipson.
Rodger Saffold – Was lost for the season with a shoulder injury in the Rams’ last game before the bye week. Garrett Reynolds filled in at right guard two weeks ago against Green Bay and is the likely starter moving forward.
KEY MISMATCH
The Browns are the worst in the NFL at stopping the run. The Rams want to run the football. The Rams have also had an extra week to rest and game plan, and they have Gurley. One might conclude that this is a favorable matchup for St. Louis. Certainly the Browns are no pushover, but they have allowed the most rushing yards in the league and the second-most yards per carry. While the Rams offense is still punchless, it has enjoyed a boost since Gurley made his debut. Starting in Week 4, St. Louis’ rushing yards total has more than doubled per game, thanks to the presence of Gurley, who has 305 yards in the last two games. The Rams can’t pass the ball, so that means Gurley will get a good number of touches. He already has five runs of 20 or more yards and two of 40 or more. The Browns have allowed better than 150 yards on the ground in five of their six games.
KEY STAT
16.8 – St. Louis’ points per game. The Rams are 31st in the NFL in scoring and failed to produce a touchdown in their last home game. Cleveland allows 26.8 points per game and has surrendered at least 30 points in each of its three road games.
BETTING ANGLE
Josh McCown is unquestionably the starting quarterback for the Browns, a situation reinforced with the circus that is Johnny Manziel. The team continues with its “almost there” theme after letting a win slip through their hands last week against Denver. And there’s a $9 million a year receiver relegated to the bench. Dwayne Bowe didn’t have a touchdown catch in 2014. Could he finish this season without a single reception? To his credit coach Mike Pettine plays his best players. But it’s not like the Browns are keeping him on the bench because they have Jerry Rice on the field. Travis Benjamin leads the team with 31 catches, which ranks tied for 23rd in the NFL. The Browns could also use a receiver with Bowe’s size, especially in the red zone. He continues to sit. The Browns are the only team to cash the over in every game, but their defense is equally responsible as the offense for that mark.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
It’s hard not to imagine Gurley running wild against a weak Browns run defense. The Rams can’t throw the ball and likely won’t have to against a team that allows nearly 150 yards per game on the ground. McCown and his 36-year-old legs won’t be able to avoid the relentless pass rush of the Rams, who should be rested following a bye week. A beaten up Duke Johnson, ineffective Isaiah Crowell and coming-off-an-injury Robert Turbin in the run game will further leave McCown on an island and susceptible to a lot of Rams’ hits. While this game lacks excitement, it should remain close. The Rams will get the win, but 5.5-points is a lot to pass on. Take the Browns to cover.
St. Louis 22, Cleveland 18
The NFL odds for this Sunday game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Rams were pegged as 5.5-point chalk while the total opened at 42.5. Gamble on the game between every commercial break with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen on the next play or how many points will be scored in the next quarter. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
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