The last time Adrian Peterson sat out an entire season, he came back and ran for 2,000 yards. Now, he returns from basically a full calendar year away from the game again, making him a real favorite for betting props on Monday Night Football for the Minnesota Vikings against the San Francisco 49ers.
There are a couple real keys here for Peterson in this game. It's worth mentioning that the spread in this game has changed dramatically over the course of the last few weeks. This point spread has changed all the way from San Fran -3.5 up to Minnesota -2.5.
It's also worth noting that the 49ers have had all sorts of problems in terms of defensive defections in the offseason. NaVorro Bowman hasn't played in a game in over a full season, and he is going to have no choice but to really man this 3-4 defense this season considering the fact that two of the other linebackers have retired. This secondary is also nowhere near as strong as it has been in the past, which could be problematic to get help from the second level if Peterson busts through the line of scrimmage.
Peterson has posted double-digits in touchdowns in every single season which he completed. Sure, he only had 75 yards on the ground in his one game last year, but this is game is a big deal. He also has averaged 110.9 rushing yards per game since the start of the 2012 season.
The big problem though, is that Peterson is going to be faced with a number on Monday Night Football to beat of at least 105 yards or so for prop purposes, and that's a huge ask.
The 49ers are going to be running a ton of rushing plays in this one, which is only going to further limit the possible times that "Purple Jesus" can get his hands on the ball. Minnesota winning time of possession would be a bit of a surprise in our eyes.
Even if San Fran falls behind by a rather large margin, Colin Kaepernick takes a ton of sacks and is slow at the line of scrimmage, which will only further milk more of the clock.
It also should be noted that this is the first time that Mike Zimmer and Peterson have ever had to co-exist together. Zimmer is a defensive guy, but this offense has been a little more aerial of late than it was when Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards in 2012. There's a big difference between having Teddy Bridgewater in the backfield and counting on Christian Ponder or some of the other lousy quarterbacks this team has had of late.
In the end, Peterson is a tough sell to us on Monday Night Football. Bettors are going to be all over his props, but we just aren't sure that he should have a betting line higher than even 80 or 85 yards. Remember that Peterson is now 30 years old, not 28, and he hasn't been on the field in quite some time. Yes, he is a superior athlete to a lot of what we see out on the field, and if there is any back who is going to excel into his 30s in the league, this is the one.
But Father Time is undefeated in his career, and he tends to really thrive off of running backs who cross this magical age of 30. That in and of itself is enough for us to want to reserve judgment on Peterson until we see him carry a football again for the first time in a calendar year.
The NFL odds for this Monday contest were first released by BookMaker, and the San Francisco 49ers were positioned as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 41. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings will take place Monday, September 14, 2015, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Levi's Stadium. The game will be televised on ESPN.
