Last week, Aaron Rodgers had arguably the worst game of his entire NFL career when he was kept in check by Denver's awesome defense. The task is only marginally easier for he and his Green Bay Packers in Week 9 though, as the Carolina Panthers are hoping they have the blueprint to once again keep A-Rod in check.
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Rodgers threw for just 77 yards and had just 7.1 fantasy points to his credit. To put that in comparison, leading into that game against the Broncos, Rodgers averaged 6.9 fantasy points per quarter.
The Green Bay offense isn't what it was last year for sure. Not having Jordy Nelson has really eliminated that massive deep threat and the scoring ability from anywhere on the field, and it has hurt Randall Cobb as a slot receiver as well. James Jones has been scoring touchdowns, but he isn't nearly as athletic or dangerous in the open field as Nelson is. Furthermore, the ground game just isn't good right now either with Eddie Lacy and James Starks, and that's giving defenses the ability to leave just six in the box and defend against the pass.
It's not like Rodgers is totally useless all of a sudden just because he had one atrocious game, though. Remember that this is a man who still has 15 touchdowns in seven games and has a 110.9 quarterback rating. He's nimble on his feet as well, averaging 2.5 fantasy points per game because of his legs in addition to what he's able to get with his arm.
The Carolina defense is good, but so much of the strength is in the front seven. Josh Norman is a fantastic shutdown corner who is blossoming into a superstar this year, but he can only defend against one man, and he isn't often used in the slot. Rodgers works the ball all over the field and has seven men with at least 10 catches already on the year. That's why he's a solid play each and every week.
However, the nod clearly goes to Super Cam in this fantasy matchup as we see it. The Packers have historically struggled against mobile quarterbacks. Remember that the only reason we in the general public were led to believe that Colin Kaepernick was a superstar in the making is because he blew this defense apart twice.
Newton rushed for 41 yards last year when these two teams played against each other, and even though he had a middling day with his arm, he was still worth 16.2 fantasy points. That isn't going to be enough to beat Rodgers SU in this matchup, but when you consider the fact that Green Bay's quarterback is going to be a heavy favorite, it's tough to argue with Newton.
Remember that the former Heisman Trophy winner is averaging 23.4 fantasy points per game this year, and that's all coming in spite of the fact that he's only completing 54.2 percent of his passes. If Newton could get that percentage up in the 60s, it would be worth a solid 3-4 more fantasy points per game for him and could be a massive difference-maker in a game where players are often separated by small margins.
Clearly, if there's a player who is going to put up 40 points out of the quarterback position in this game, it's going to be Rodgers. He's capable of throwing four touchdown passes against anyone in the NFL. That said, this game is being played on Newton's turf, and he's going to be the more consistent of the two sides. We see around 25 fantasy points getting the job done for Newton, and we see no reason why he can't get to that against this Green Bay defense on Sunday.
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