On one glance, it would seem foolish to recommend that Tom Brady and Brock Osweiler belong in the same sentence together. Straight sports bettors know that Brady has put quarterbacks like Osweiler to shame for the last decade and a half, while fantasy football players have known Brady to be one of the most valuable commodities in the sport for that same period of time. However, when the Denver Broncos take on the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football this week, we see a lot of value in taking the kid from Arizona State as a big dog against the top dog in the league for fantasy football purposes.
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Even though Cam Newton has a really good claim to be the MVP of the league through the first three months of the year, we see no argument against Pats Tom Brady. Literally the only player alongside him on this offense which has been healthy from start to finish is Rob Gronkowski.
In spite of that, he was the only man in the league averaging over 30 fantasy points per game by BookMaker's scoring standards until last week when he was held in relative check by the Bills. He's now down to a mere 29.5 fantasy points per game, still the best mark amongst all players with at least five games played in the NFL.
Still, there are warning signs here that this is a bad matchup for Brady.
We'll start with the Denver secondary, one which has allowed just 190.6 passing yards per game, 5.6 yards per pass attempt and 9.2 yards per completion. Opposing quarterbacks have a QB rating of just 71.6 against the Broncos in 2015, and they're amassing 3.4 sacks per game.
The offensive line around Brady is still banged up, as three of the five projected starters from the beginning of the season won't play in this one. Demarcus Ware and the outside rushers for the Broncos have to be licking their chops about this matchup even though Brady still has the quickest release in the NFL.
Furthermore, the receivers Brady has to work with this week are arguably the worst in the NFL. Just in the last couple weeks, Julian Edelman broke his foot, Aaron Dobson hurt his ankle, Danny Amendola suffered a sprained knee, and Keshawn Martin pulled his hamstring.
What's left are Brandon LaFell and a bunch of question marks. Matthew Slater is largely just a special teams player, while Chris Harper is a receiver who hasn't had a single catch all season long.
That could mean more of LeGarrette Blount and less of Brady throw the ball all over the field.
That's where the door could swing open for Osweiler. He put up 27.2 fantasy points last week against the Bears, an incredibly healthy total for sure for a man making his first career start.
Osweiler might get back Emmanuel Sanders for this game after missing him last week. He's done a nice job getting the ball to his tight ends as well, and that could open up some room for the always-dangerous Demaryius Thomas to do some work.
Thomas really made the game for Osweiler last week for fantasy purposes. He took a slant pass which covered about 10 yards in the air and turned it into a 48-yard touchdown catch and run. If he or Sanders can do anything similar again in this one, that might be all it takes to stick inside of what is sure to be a relatively big point spread for fantasy football purposes against Brady.
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The matchup between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos will take place Sunday, November 29, 2015, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The game will be televised on NBC.
