Tom Brady's career for the New England Patriots against the New York Giants hasn't been anything to write home about. Two of his ugliest losses came at the hands of the G-Men, and that could make his fantasy matchup against Eli Manning a lot more interesting than it feels like it should be on paper.
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Of course, if we just start with the raw numbers, it's hard to see Brady as anything but a massive favorite in this game. He's averaging a borderline stupid 32.3 fantasy points per game, and he's not only the fantasy MVP of the year in most leagues, but he's also got a great gripe to be the league's MVP right now as well.
Manning, though having a great year by his own standards, just isn't on the level of Tom Terrific. His average fantasy score of 23.4 points per game by BookMaker's standards is good, but it isn't anywhere near being able to challenge Brady.
Or at least that's the way it seems.
Take a little bit of a deeper look at this matchup though, and it's at least plausible to see where the Giants could be able to slow Brady down just a bit.
We hate this Dion Lewis injury for Brady and the New England offense. It's going to force the hand of Bill Belichick and Josh McRoberts just a bit, and we bet we'd see more of LeGarrette Blount, which is essentially going to take an extra receiver off the field. Let's not forget that New England's wide receivers aren't exactly the cream of the crop, and Rob Gronkowski has largely been nothing superhuman outside of in the red zone this year.
On top of that, the Patriots have more injuries along their offensive line than any other team in the league, and they could have their hands full of Jason Pierre-Paul can make an impact on obvious passing downs where Brady is going to have to hold the ball for more than just one Mississippi.
So sure, the Giants are conceding well over 300 passing yards per game this year and rank No. 31 in the league, but if we're strictly measuring Brady by his fantasy possibilities, we at least see a scenario in which he can struggle.
Furthermore, Manning has been hot of late. He threw two touchdowns last week against Tampa Bay, and he did so without hooking up with Odell Beckham Jr. in the end zone. That came on the heels of his six-touchdown showing against New Orleans.
That's now six games for Manning with at least two touchdown passes, and though he does have some games which are total duds, he's good at playing from behind and could put together some garbage points as well if need be.
Remember, this total is so high for a reason, and the fact that the Patriots are only favored by seven tells you that the oddsmakers see the Giants finding the end zone at least three times. Don't forget that they only have three rushing touchdowns this season, meaning Manning has had to come up with most of the production by himself.
We'd never take Manning outright in this game against Brady for fantasy purposes, because it's tough to see a circumstance in which the future Hall of Famer doesn't throw for at least two, if not at least three scores. However, considering the fact that we're probably going to be getting at least 7-8 points on our side, the Giants' pivot all of a sudden becomes a heck of a lot more palatable for this fantasy matchup.
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