This is the first of what the Packers hope are two visits to the 49ers second-year home venue this season. A win Sunday would improve Green Bay’s chances of a return trip to Levi’s Stadium in February. The 49ers have been the Packers kryptonite the past few seasons, but this isn’t the same Niners club that won four straight in the series and ended the Packers 2012 and 2013 seasons.
ODDS
The Packers opened as a 7-point favorite with the total at 47.5. Green Bay is 3-0 ATS this season and 6-1 ATS in its last seven, but don’t underestimate the Niners at home. The line was wagered to -8 while the total jumped to 48.5. The under is 7-1 in San Francisco’s last eight home games and the Niners are dead last in the NFL in scoring offense.
KEY INJURIES
Andrew Quarless – Was placed on short-term injured reserve after being knocked out of Monday’s game with a sprained knee. The Packers didn’t immediately replace him on the roster, leaving them with only starter Richard Rodgers and Kennard Backman at tight end.
Davante Adams – Lasted three plays into Monday’s game before bowing out with an ankle sprain. He first injured the ankle the previous week against Seattle and was held out of practice early in the week. He is questionable to play Sunday.
Vernon Davis – Left last week’s game in the third quarter with a knee injury and sat out practice early in the week. His availability for Sunday remains in question. Vance McDonald and Garrett Celek would likely see more reps if Davis can’t go.
KEY MISMATCH
Last week, Aaron Rodgers carved up what was considered a respected defense entering the season. Next up is a team that’s allowed 90 points and nearly 900 yards of offense in its last two games. Already without Jordy Nelson, the Pack lost another starting receiver last week when Devante Adams left with a recurrent ankle injury. Rodgers went on to throw for 333 yards and five touchdowns without a pick on 24 of 35 passing in a win over Kansas City. Rodgers has thrown a league-high 10 touchdowns without an interception, and only Tom Brady and Eli Manning have more attempts without a pick. Rodgers’ ability to pick apart the backend of the Niners defense with the duo of Randall Cobb and James Jones will be made easier if an offensive line that has been without Bryan Bulaga the last two games can continue to keep him relatively clean.
KEY STAT
32.0 – Green Bay’s points per game to rank fourth in the NFL. The 49ers are next to last in points allowed at 31.0 and have surrendered 90 in the last two games.
BETTING ANGLE
Kick ‘em while they’re down. That should be the battle cry of the Packers heading into their Week 4 matchup with San Francisco, with hopes of overcoming possibly their biggest nemesis over the past three seasons. The 49ers have ended two of the Packers’ last three seasons and won four straight in the series including the two postseason games, though they didn’t meet last year as San Francisco’s NFC prominence fell into decline. Niners quarterback Colin Kaepernick is 3-0 with six touchdowns and a 101.3 rating as a starter during the four-game winning streak against Green Bay. Rodgers has played all four with eight touchdowns, three interceptions and a 96.0 rating.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Niners suffered too many losses and defections in the offseason and what we’ve seen the last two games, though maybe a bit extreme, is what we expected. The season-opening win over Minnesota was clearly the fluke. A pair of blowout losses where the defense was riddled and the offense failed to show up when it mattered, are clearly discouraging for this once proud franchise. Coach Jim Tomsula said the playbook is built around the strengths of Kaepernick, but if that’s the case, the Niners better start over. The Packers are looking good early on and Rodgers is salivating with the thought of facing a defense that has surrendered nearly 900 yards of offense in the last two games. The Packers should take care of business easily.
Green Bay 37, San Francisco 18
BookMaker opened the spread for this Sunday game at -7 in favor of the Packers. The NFL odds total surfaced at 47.5. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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