The Falcons have proven to be the class of the NFC East. It’s just unfortunate that’s not their division. After wins over Philadelphia, New York and Dallas, we’ll get a chance to see how they stack up against other competition. The Falcons are 3-0 for the third time since the 1980s and they reached the NFC Championship Game the past two times. Despite being just 1-2, the Texans are in a four-way tie for first in the AFC South.
ODDS
Atlanta is a favorite for the first time this season opening at -6 with a total of 45. The Falcons are 3-0 ATS this season and 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Money on the home team pushed the line to -6.5 while the total soared to 47.
KEY INJURIES
Brandon Brooks – Sprained his right ankle last week against Tampa Bay and did not return to the game. The starting right guard is “very hopeful” he’ll be able to play on Sunday but he is listed as questionable. Tackle Derek Newton shifted over to guard and undrafted rookie Kendall Lamm stepped in for Newton.
Jacob Tamme – Suffered a concussion last week and entered the league’s protocol for head injuries. He is not likely to play on Sunday, and with the Falcons having only one other tight end on the roster, the team brought back Mickey Shuler.
KEY MISMATCH
The Falcons were able to do anything they wanted to offensively in last week’s win over the Cowboys, racking up 438 yards. Devonta Freeman, starting in place of the injured Tevin Coleman, had a career day running for 141 yards and three touchdowns on 30 carries and Julio Jones was, well, Julio Jones. With Freeman rolling up yards, the Falcons were able to unleash Jones in the passing game. Three weeks into the season, Jones is on an unprecedented pace. He was targeted 20 times last week and hauled in 12 catches for 164 yards and two scores. For the season he now has 34 receptions, the most ever by an NFL receiver in his first three games. Jones broke loose in the second half. He moved around in the formation, lining up on both sides in the slot and even as the tailback in an I-formation, creating favorable matchups. The Texans must pressure Matt Ryan into hurried throws or he and Jones could have another feast.
KEY STAT
53.3 – Atlanta’s third down conversion rate. The Falcons have converted a NFL-high 24 third downs and rank second in efficiency. Houston has allowed opponents to convert on third down just 21.1 percent of the time.
BETTING ANGLE
Failure is not an option and Texans coach Bill O’Brien is making sure his players know that if they don’t perform, their jobs aren’t safe. The most recent example came with his release of kicker Randy Bullock, a fifth-round draft pick in 2012. Bullock is the only NFL kicker so far this season who has missed more than one extra point. Bullock missed two PATs in the first three games and also missed a 43-yard field goal last week. During the past two seasons he had made all 66 of his extra points. Houston signed former San Diego Chargers kicker Nick Novak as his replacement. The coach’s message is resonating loud and clear.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Falcons are one of seven teams to go 3-0 but their defense is the worst of the bunch. Houston can be a problem as several injured offensive players, including running back Arian Foster, could be returning to the lineup. The Texans had a strong showing by their O-line last week, allowing Alfred Blue to run free for 139 yards. That performance opened up the passing game and Ryan Mallett looked pretty darn good. But Houston will have to score more than the 19 points put up against the Bucs. If the Texans defense can pressure Ryan and force him to hurry his throws, they have an excellent chance of limiting the big plays from Jones and coming away with a win. The Falcons haven’t overpowered anyone and as I mentioned, the D is still shaky. Look for J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and the rest of the Texans D to harass Ryan into some costly mistakes and Houston to get the victory.
Houston 29, Atlanta 27
The NFL odds for this Sunday contest were first released by BookMaker and the Falcons were positioned as 6-point favorites with a total of 45. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
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