The Indianapolis Colts went all in during the offseason, picking up veteran playmakers with the hope of finally getting over the hump and into the Super Bowl.
Those moves – and an ever-improving Andrew Luck – have the Colts +333 favorites to win the AFC. The Rex Ryan era begins in Buffalo with high expectations for the Bills’ first playoff trip in 15 years.
ODDS
Indianapolis opened as a 2.5-point road favorite in the opener. There’s been no movement on the spread, but the total fell from an opening 47 to 45.5. The Bills are likely without running back LeSean McCoy, which leaves them challenged on the offensive side of the ball.
KEY INJURIES
Vick Ballard – Is questionable for the opener as he continues to rehab a hamstring injury. If healthy Ballard would be the second running back for the Colts behind Frank Gore after Boom Herron was placed on injured reserve.
Greg Toler – Barring a sudden change, the Colts will be without their starting corner as he tries to overcome a neck injury. Darius Butler would likely start in his place.
Leodis McKelvin – The Bills starting corner had a setback in his recovery from an ankle injury and will not play. Rookie second-round pick Ronald Darby will likely step into the starting role.
LeSean McCoy – Buffalo’s top offseason acquisition continues to nurse a hamstring injury and indications are he won’t play in the season opener.
KEY MISMATCH
Andrew Luck against Tyrod Taylor
It’s safe to say the Colts have the advantage at the most important position on the playing field with Andrew Luck having a huge edge on Bills’ starter Tyrod Taylor. Coach Rex Ryan went the entire preseason before naming his quarterback, and he chose the Super Bowl champion Taylor. Of course, Taylor didn’t actually play in Baltimore’s Super Bowl XLVII win. In fact the 26-year-old threw just 35 passes in his first four seasons in Baltimore, completing 19 for 199 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions in zero career starts. He won the competition with Matt Cassell and E.J. Manuel during the exhibition season, where he looked impressive completing 24 of 31 for 236 yards, and ran for 108 more in three games. But it was the preseason. Luck is clearly among the best quarterbacks in the NFL after directing the Colts to the AFC Championship game last season. He’s started every game since the Colts took him with the first overall pick in 2012 and his numbers have gotten better each year. Luck tossed 40 scoring passes while completing 61.7 percent of his passes in 2014.
KEY STAT
28.6 – Indy’s points per game last season. Luck was the leader of an impressive aerial attack and he has more weapons to work with this season. An improved running game – they ranked 27th last year – should help that number grow with Frank Gore getting plenty of touches in his first year with the team.
BETTING ANGLE
It’s hard enough to win football games when coaches and management are in sync. It’s much more difficult when they’re not. There’s a public power struggle in Colts camp between head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson. This is nothing new to the NFL where coaches and executives often don’t see eye-to-eye on decisions regarding their football teams. But there are some issues that have fueled speculation that there are problems between them. The obvious is Pagano’s contract situation. He was offered an extension and declined it, likely because he didn’t like the terms. So Pagano is a lame-duck coach whose deal expires after this season, and Grigson allowed that to happen. Pagano is saying all the right things, but you know with his authority over lineup decisions being challenged, he has to be fuming.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Taylor gets his first career start after spending four years as Joe Flacco’s backup in Baltimore. While he impressed during the preseason, it’s a completely different ball game once the games count. Taylor gives Buffalo a dual-threat edge that Cassell couldn’t, and Manuel will probably turn out to be a bust. The Bills will need Taylor’s legs to move the football with McCoy out. He’ll give the Colts D a test with his scrambling ability but will have trouble putting the ball in the endzone. The Colts have no issues offensively and will stretch the Bills defense with Luck’s precision short game and deep threat T.Y. Hilton. Gore was added to improve the run game, and if he’s successful, the Colts will be even tougher to stop.
Indianapolis 26, Buffalo 19
The NFL spread for this Sunday game was first available at BookMaker Sportsbook and the Colts surfaced as 2.5-point chalk. The total opened at 47. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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