As hard as they’ve tried this season, the Colts just can’t lose a game within the AFC South. Indy’s overtime win last week over Jacksonville extended their winning streak against divisional opponents to 15 straight, and they did it without quarterback Andrew Luck, who may be sitting again when the Colts visit Houston on Thursday night.
ODDS
While oddsmakers wait for word on the status of Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, the spread and total remain off the board.
KEY INJURIES
Andrew Luck – Sat out Sunday’s game with a partial separation of his right throwing shoulder. The injury typically heals with rest and treatment over time, but the recovery time depends on the severity of the injury. Matt Hasselbeck started in his place in a win over the Jaguars last week.
Cecil Shorts III – Dislocated his shoulder on the final play of Sunday’s game and will probably not be available Thursday. Nate Washington and Keith Mumphery will need to step up in the absence of the team’s second leading receiver.
KEY MISMATCH
The Colts will continue to see press coverage and more blitzes until they prove they can throw deep. While Hasselbeck stayed in control of last week’s game, he averaged just 6.0 yards per completion. He did complete a 28-yard pass to Coby Fleener in overtime, his best downfield toss of the game, but was just 3 of 11 for 52 yards on the rest of his throws of at least 15 yards downfield. Hasselbeck is likely to get another start as Luck rests his ailing shoulder. The last thing the Colts want to do is put Luck out there not completely healthy and risk taking a hit that causes further damage. Indy will be going against a defense that won’t be from Jacksonville. Texans’ defensive end J.J. Watt has made things difficult for the Colts the past few seasons and Houston did a nice job limiting Julio Jones in a loss at Atlanta on Sunday.
KEY STAT
-9 – Indianapolis’ NFL-worst turnover margin. The Colts didn’t throw an interception last week, the first time all season that’s happened, but they did lose two fumbles to increase their negative turnover margin. Houston has just two takeaways on defense through four games.
BETTING ANGLE
When you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have any. As the old football saying goes. The Texans have a pair and neither one has been very good this season. Coach Bill O’Brien said Ryan Mallett remains the starter and “like all of us, he knows he has to play better.” Mallett threw a pick and the Texans didn’t score while he was in the game, a 48-21 loss in Atlanta. He completed 12 of 27 passes for 150 yards with a quarterback rating of 46.8 for the game. Mallett was pulled in the second half for Brian Hoyer, who led the team to three meaningless scoring drives after falling behind 42-0, the largest margin in franchise history. Hoyer was named the starter at the beginning of the year and was promptly removed in favor of Mallett in Houston’s season opener.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Colts haven’t looked like the dominant team that has waltzed through the AFC South the last few seasons, but they continue to make life difficult for the other teams in the division. Indy barely got by Jacksonville last week, winning in overtime after two late missed field goals from Jags’ kicker Jason Myers. But a win is a win and the Colts now have 15 straight against division foes, putting them back on top for now. It’s hard to back the Texans with their revolving door at quarterback. Mallett and Hoyer have both been bad and the team has struggled because of it. Even Houston’s defense, the supposed strength of the club, was riddled last week by Atlanta. By no means are the Texans out of the division race and a win at home over the Colts puts them back in it. I like Mallett to play much better than he did against the Falcons and the Texans to not turn the ball over as much. The defense didn’t play badly last week, the group was just hung out to dry by an offense that didn’t generate anything. Arian Foster will help the run game now that he’s back with a game under his belt and the Texans will end Indy’s division dominance.
Houston 24, Indianapolis 18
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The game between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans will go down Thursday, October 8, 2015, at 8:25 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium. The football matchup will be televised live on CBS and the NFL Network.
