Getting the two teams that competed in last season’s AFC Championship Game in back-to-back weeks on the road isn’t a pleasant task for any club, let alone the rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags failed the first test miserably, getting clocked by the Pats last weekend, and look to end a five-game losing streak to division rival Indianapolis.
ODDS
Indianapolis opened as a 9-point favorite with the total at 47.5. The line has been wagered down to -7.5 with the Colts going 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite in every game. Both teams have struggled offensively giving some value to the under, but the Jags did just allow a franchise record 51 points last week.
KEY INJURIES
Josh Evans – The Jags’ starting strong safety suffered an MCL injury while fellow starter free safety Sergio Brown injured his calf last weekend against the Patriots. Evans is likely to miss a few games while Brown is listed as day-to-day. James Sample and Johnathan Cyprien, who’s currently shelved with a calf injury, could see action at safety spots against the Colts.
Greg Toler – Remains sidelined with a neck injury and is listed as week-to-week, which means he’ll still be out for the foreseeable future. Vontae Davis returned from his concussion to start at cornerback last weekend alongside Jalil Brown with Darius Butler still sidelined with a hip injury.
Trent Cole – Didn’t travel to Nashville for last week’s game and is listed as day-to-day while he continues to recover from a knee injury. Robert Mathis saw an increased workload in Cole’s absence and Jonathan Newsome also got some reps.
KEY MISMATCH
Three defensive backs – including two safeties – were hurt in Jacksonville’s loss at New England last weekend, leaving the team thin in the secondary against another gunslinger in Andrew Luck. Strong safety Evans suffered an MCL injury and free safety Brown injured his calf. In addition, cornerback Davon House sustained a lower leg injury and will be re-evaluated during the week. The three join safety Cyprien and corner Dwayne Gratz on the injured list, leaving all five questionable for Sunday’s game, meaning the Jags could be without their top three safeties or two of their top two cornerbacks against Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Andre Johnson, Donte Moncrief, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener.
KEY STAT
30.3 – Jacksonville’s points per game allowed. The Jags allowed a franchise record 51 points to New England last week and could be without five players in the secondary against the Colts. After scoring 21 points through their first two games, the Colts erupted for 35 last week.
BETTING ANGLE
Several reports have the Colts playing the 2015 season with a lame-duck head coach. Indy’s depressing 0-2 start has magnified the rift between Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson and even a win last week at Tennessee did very little to mend the differences. Winning has masked the philosophical divide between Pagano and Grigson in the past and could again if the Colts get on a prolonged roll, but people close to Pagano are reportedly saying the coach “doubts” he will return to Indianapolis next season. It’s natural for a coach and GM to disagree on certain players, development strategies and playing time. Some working situations are irreconcilable. As we saw in San Francisco last season, those issues can erode a team’s season.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Sometimes all it takes is a win to right the ship, and the Colts are hoping that’s the case. Being in a division where every team has a losing record also helps. Indy looked awful losing its first two games but showed enough last week in a comeback win on the road to suddenly claim a share of first place in the AFC South. Andrew Luck directed three fourth-quarter touchdown drives and the Colts overcame a 13-point deficit to get their first win in a gutsy performance. Indy put together a nice run last season after starting 0-2 and is in a good position to even their record against the Jags, who were annihilated last week. The Colts have owned the division with 14 straight wins against AFC South foes and the Jags don’t appear to be a challenge to end that run.
Indianapolis 27, Jacksonville 13
The NFL betting lines for this Sunday contest were first released by BookMaker and the Colts were positioned as 9-point favorites with a total of 47.5. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
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