Following the dismantling of the Bills last week, the Patriots opened as a two-touchdown favorite in their game with the Jaguars.
It’s not often we get double-digit favorites, and to be laying a pair of touchdowns is almost unheard of in the NFL. But that’s a sign that the Pats are on a roll. They’ve beaten the Jags nine times in 10 meetings and haven’t lost to them since 1999.
ODDS
New England opened with the biggest spread on the board at -14 with the total at 47.5. Rarely do we see double-digit favorites, let alone a two-touchdown favorite in the NFL. The line was wagered down to -13.5, but still a lot of points, even for the Pats at home.
KEY INJURIES
Denard Robinson – Will likely miss several weeks after injuring his left knee last week. He was hurt after rushing for nine yards on his only carry. Robinson led the Jags in rushing last season and has split time with T.J. Yeldon in the backfield this year.
Rashad Greene – Was placed on short-term injured reserve following surgery to repair a ligament in his right thumb. The Jags reserve receiver sustained the injury in the Miami game and had nine catches and a touchdown in the first two games.
Dominique Easley – New England’s starting defensive tackle missed last week’s game with a hip injury he suffered in the opener. He’s questionable to return Sunday and would be followed by Sealver Siliga or Alan Branch on the depth chart.
KEY MISMATCH
One thing you don’t want to do is piss off Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Rex Ryan and the NFL have a way of doing that and the Pats responded. Despite Belichick’s emphasis that the passing game wasn’t perfect and left plenty of plays on the field, the unit still put up huge numbers against what many consider an elite defense. Brady hit 38 of his 59 throws for 466 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Buffalo last week. The group of pass catchers was excellent once again with Julian Edelman hauling in 11 for 97 yards and two scores. Rob Gronkowski had 113 yards on his six catches while Dion Lewis added 98 yards on six catches and Aaron Dobson had 87 on seven receptions, putting the Pats within striking distance of having four 100-yard receivers. The Pats’ passing game is so diverse, defenses can’t look to stop just one player and the plan worked to perfection against Buffalo.
KEY STAT
377.0 – Pass yards per game for Tom Brady. New England’s quarterback has been near perfect this season, throwing for a league-best 754 yards with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions through two games. Jacksonville allows 251 yards per game through the air and opponent quarterbacks are completing 64 percent of their passes.
BETTING ANGLE
As if facing the defending Super Bowl champs isn’t motivation enough, the Jaguars enter as a two-touchdown underdog for the meeting with the Patriots in Foxborough. The Pats are the biggest favorite to this point in the NFL season. Being a big favorite hasn’t yielded results, however. The two teams laying the largest totals in each of the first two weeks of the season are a combined 0-4 ATS. The Eagles at -7 and Saints at -9 were the heavily-favored teams in Week 2 and both lost their games straight up. New England is 9-1 all-time against Jags, but only two of those victories have been by more than 14 points.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
It’s hard to imagine the Pats losing this game. Sure the Jags look like a different team after beating the Dolphins last week and the defense appears to be much stronger, but after watching the Pats steamroll the Bills, who many see being a factor in the AFC, it’s just hard to go against New England. Brady has the Pats offense clicking and, while the defense does have some holes, there just aren’t enough for the Jags to penetrate. I like Jacksonville and what coach Gus Bradley is doing, but the rebuild will take some time and they are nowhere near what the Pats are. The Jags will keep it close and cover the spread, because two touchdowns is an awful lot in the NFL.
New England 30, Jacksonville 17
The NFL odds for this Sunday contest were first released by BookMaker and the Patriots were positioned as 14-point favorites with a total of 47.5. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
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