The Kansas City Chiefs had 10 days to game plan for the best quarterback in the NFL and are hopeful the extra time brings some positive results. The additional days also left the Chiefs stewing after failing to hold a seven-point lead in the final minute of their loss to Denver. The Packers own an impressive home field advantage with 10 consecutive wins and are 7-3 ATS in that stretch.
ODDS
Green Bay opened as a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 48. The spread peaked at -7, but injury concerns surrounding the Packers had the line wagered back down to -6. The total spiked a point to 49.
KEY INJURIES
Sean Smith – The Chiefs thought they had the depth to withstand the loss of their only established cornerback. They were wrong. Things will look better when he returns, but the Chiefs have one more game before he returns from suspension, and it comes against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Morgan Burnett – Has been ruled out for Monday’s game with a calf injury he suffered in practice. It’s the same injury that kept the Packers strong safety out of Week 1 against Chicago.
Eddie Lacy – Was carted off the field during last week’s win over Seattle with an ankle injury, and given an additional day, was upgraded to probable. Given how severe the injury looked when it first occurred, it’s hard to imagine Lacy being close to 100 percent.
KEY MISMATCH
It’s been so long since Aaron Rodgers threw an interception at Lambeau Field that even he doesn’t remember the play. It was Week 13 of the 2012 season, a span that now includes 18 straight games, including playoffs, since Minnesota’s Harrison Smith picked him off. During Rodgers’ interception-free stretch, he’s thrown 545 passes with 43 touchdowns – both NFL records. Without his top target in Jordy Nelson, Rodgers may be playing at a higher level than last season. Through two games, he’s completed 76.8 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He won’t continue to produce insane numbers, but even then he should remain the most difficult quarterback for opposing teams to defend.
KEY STAT
8.0 – The Chiefs are tied for second in the NFL in quarterback sacks. They must try to exploit the absence of Packers’ tackle Bryan Bulaga, who will miss his second straight game.
BETTING ANGLE
Though not technically a bye, Chiefs’ coach Andy Reid has had plenty of success when given extra time to prepare his team. Call it a mini-bye for Kansas City, who opened Week 2 of the NFL season with a Thursday night game back on Sept. 17 and is still stewing over a loss to Denver that week. History says Reid uses his additional time off very well, posting a 14-2 record in his career after a bye. It will be 11 days between games for the Chiefs when they conclude Week 3 with Monday night’s game. Furthermore, Reid’s Chiefs have only been beaten by more than one score on three occasions. They don’t get blown out very often.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Chiefs had additional time off between games and are relatively healthy heading into Monday night’s clash. The Packers, not so much. Kansas City has a potent pass rush with Justin Houston and Tamba Hali and should be able to pressure Rodgers with his left tackle Bulaga out. But doing something with the rush against an elusive Rodgers is necessary for any success. Green Bay could also be without Lacy and receiver Davante Adams, which would seriously hurt the offense. But the Packers are a resourceful group and coach Mike McCarthy uses a conservative playbook to help his offense stay out of critical situations. The Chiefs were burned last game by too many turnovers, but were still in position to beat the Broncos until their last minute meltdown. KC will do a better job of holding onto the football and their defense will limit the Pack, but Rodgers will find holes in the secondary to carry Green Bay to a close win.
Green Bay 26, Kansas City 22
The NFL lines for this Monday game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Packers were pegged as 6.5-point chalk while the total opened at 48. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, totals and spreads. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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