The Pittsburgh Steelers are a trendy pick to knock off New England and win the AFC, but first they have to get past the Kansas City Chiefs. Pittsburgh dominated Miami all day long in the Wildcard Round, but Kansas City is a much more complete team. The Chiefs don’t have glaring weaknesses on either side of the ball and one of the best special teams units in the league. However, no team has more talent at the skill positions than Pittsburgh.
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NFL Playoff Odds at BookMaker.eu
Chiefs -2
Steelers +2
Over/Under 44
When the Chiefs Have the Ball…
Travis Kelce has been a monster for the Chiefs this season and will be the main target for Alex Smith. Unlike most tight ends that sit down in the middle of coverage and catch short yardage routes, the Chiefs lose Kelce to spread the field. Kelce is averaging 13.2 yards per catch, second only to RB Spencer Ware, and leads the team in receptions of 20 or more yards with 14. However, he had one of his worst games of the season when these teams met in October and that played a large part in Kansas City’s blowout loss.
Pittsburgh doesn’t have great cornerbacks, but Kansas City doesn’t have the best receivers either. The Chiefs do have Jeremy Maclin, but use him as an underneath possession receiver almost exclusively and he hasn’t caught a pass longer than 44 yards yet this season. Maclin has been deemphasized even more over the last five games of the season, finishing with less than 20 yards receiving in three of the five games.
When the Steelers Have the Ball…
Antonio Brown was unstoppable the first two drives for Pittsburgh last week and his two touchdowns on the first two possessions gave the Steelers a lead they would never relinquish. It’s hard to argue that there is a better receiver in the league than Brown right now, especially based on his most recent performances. He can beat any kind of coverage and torched Kansas City for two touchdowns the last time these teams met. However, this secondary, and particularly second-year cornerback Marcus Peters has gotten better as the season has worn on and the Chiefs had the seventh-best pass defense in the NFL.
Look for the Steelers to feed LeVeon Bell for as long as he is effective. Bell tore up the Chiefs defense for 8 yards a carry in his first game back from suspension earlier in the season and Kansas City doesn’t have a great run defense. The Chiefs are a little undersized along the defensive line and teams can gash them with a power running game.
The X Factor
Although Antonio Brown is an electrifying punt returner in his own right, Tyreek Hill is already bringing up positive comparisons to Devin Hester with his speed. Hill is a nightmare to stop in the open field and notched three return touchdowns this season, one off of a kickoff and two off of punts. No one is going to be able to catch him from behind with his speed and that has led to him averaging over 27 yards a kickoff return and 15 yards per punt return.
He has been such a playmaker that the Chiefs have incorporated them into their offense more and more. Hill was second on the team in receptions and receiving yards, mostly being used to catch swing passes and slants, and ended up taking six of those to the house.
Look for Pittsburgh to kick away from him every chance it gets on special teams and to play a more conservative brand of defense to avoid giving him one-on-one chances. Hill can break a bubble screen for a touchdown if a defense over-pursues and Pittsburgh can’t allow that.
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