The Green Bay Packers are red hot, having won their last seven games en route to a NFC North Division Title, but now must face the best team in the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is ready to shed the label of playoff choke artists, but the line indicates that there are a lot of bettors who like Green Bay to win this one. Green Bay has come into its own in recent weeks and although Dallas finished with the best record, the Pack are on a roll.
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NFL Playoff Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cowboys -4.5
Packers +4.5
Over/Under 52
When the Cowboys Have the Ball…
There’s no question that Dallas has the best offensive line in the league and will look to pound the ball with Ezekiel Elliott as much as possible. Elliott led the NFL in rushing this season thanks to his outstanding line, but the rookie also showed that he can run through arm tackles and has next-level speed. He has shown no signs of hitting the proverbial rookie wall but even if he was a little gassed, the bye week definitely helped.
If Green Bay is able to stop the run, Dak Prescott is going to need to be able to find Cole Beasley and Dez Bryant down the field. Prescott has responded to every test presented to him thus far this season, but the playoffs are a different animal. The good news is that he has the best receiver on either side of the field in this one in Bryant and although he was banged up earlier this season, Prescott has looked his way often. The Packers’ secondary is weak, especially Damarious Randall, and Bryant could have a big game.
When the Packers Have the Ball…
If Jordy Nelson is out, the Packers will be down their best receiver. Nelson suffered two cracked ribs against the Giants last week and his status is up in the air for this one as a result. He is the most reliable receiver Rodgers has and without him, Randall Cobb or Davante Adams will see a lot of balls thrown their way.
Ty Montgomery has not been a particularly reliable option at running back. The Packers don’t run the ball much anyways, Montgomery had the most carries with 77 on the year, instead relying on the short passing game to replace the running game, but aside from his breakout performance against Chicago, he did nothing all season.
Dallas had the best defense in the league according to conventional stats, but that’s why advanced metrics are so important. This Cowboys defense is very overrated and can be beaten. Their numbers are so good because they were often ahead in the game and didn’t have to worry about a running game.
The X Factor
There’s no doubt that the most important player in this game is going to be Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is one of the few quarterbacks in the league that can win a game single-handedly and his play during the Packers winning streak has been out of this world.
Even without Nelson, Rodgers can tear up a Cowboys secondary that isn’t nearly as good as people believe. Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, and Orlando Scandrick aren’t great cornerbacks and a passer like Rodgers can make them look foolish.
Like a hot goalie in the NHL playoffs, it’s hard to go against Rodgers now. He has thrown for 300 or more yards and four touchdowns in three straight games and hasn’t thrown an interception since a loss to Tennessee almost two months ago. Rodgers is going to throw the ball all over the place in this one and if he is as precise as he has been, the Packers have a great chance to pull off the upset.
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