For the first time ever, a total for a conference championship game has cracked the 60-point plateau. The over/under between the Atlanta Falcons and the Green Bay Packers opened up at 58.5, but climbed north of 60 after a flurry of betting and will likely end there. It’s not hard to see why bettors favor a high-scoring game with Aaron Rodgers dazzling us with fantastic throws each time he steps on the field and Atlanta scoring 71 more points than any other team did in the regular season.
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NFL Playoff Odds at BookMaker.eu
Falcons -5
Packers +5
Over/Under 61
When the Falcons Have the Ball…
Matt Ryan is the favorite to win the MVP award this season for being the triggerman in the league’s best offense according to both traditional and advanced metrics. Ryan not only had almost 5000 yards through the air and a TD to INT ratio of over 5 to 1, but also was the top quarterback in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ metrics of DYAR, DVOA, and QBR.
Ryan has one of the best wide receivers in the league in Julio Jones, but while Jones was a big play threat earlier in the season, a nagging toe injury seems to have taken away some of his explosiveness. Although Jones is averaging 17 yards a reception, he has failed to reach that average in each of his last five games, and only has one 100-yard game in that time. It says a lot about this offense that they are still putting up points without him, but he could really exploit this secondary if he was fully healthy.
How Kyle Shanahan uses his running backs in the passing game makes this offense difficult to stop. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are constantly matched up against linebackers thanks to Shanahan’s play-calling and they have made defenses pay. Freeman and Coleman combined for 204 total yards and two touchdowns against Seattle last week and half those yards came in the form of receptions. Green Bay’s linebackers aren’t good in coverage and these two could have huge games.
When the Packers Have the Ball…
It’s all about Aaron Rodgers at this point. Green Bay has essentially abandoned the run and left its fate in the hands of No. 12. Rodgers has rewarded the Packers’ faith after winning eight in a row in order to make the playoffs.
He finally threw an interception for the first time in nine games, but there is no doubt that Rodgers is playing on a completely different level right now. Defenses are lining up in nickel knowing that Green Bay isn’t going to run the ball but still can’t stop him.
Ty Montgomery and the running game might get a lot of looks if Atlanta lines up in nickel. Montgomery only has one 100-yard game this season, but the Falcons have been one of the worst teams stopping the run all year long according to Football Outsiders. Opposing teams usually give up on the run after the Falcons start pouring on the points, but Green Bay has an offense that can match them step for step.
The X Factor
The last time these teams met Julio Jones was held in check, but the offseason acquisitions of Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel weren’t. Sanu and Gabriel combined to haul in 12 passes for 152 yards and 2 touchdowns and the frequent victim was Damarious Randall. Randall couldn’t stop either receiver when he was matched up against them and the fact that he has been nursing an injury makes it even more likely that one of these two will have a big game. One of these two should have a very nice afternoon and that means Atlanta will likely score at least 30.
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