The Houston Texans are the biggest underdogs in 18 years this weekend. Nobody believes in Houston after its win over a Derek Carr-less Oakland Raiders squad even though Jadeveon Clowney looks unstoppable. That’s because when Houston traveled to take on the New England Patriots earlier this season, the Pats shut out the Texans 27-0 with Jacoby Brissett under center in place of Tom Brady. The dominating victory gave Houston the label of pretender once again, but it has the chance to prove everyone wrong on Saturday night.
Don't miss this NFL playoff game from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts at 8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday. Catch every moment of the game live on CBS.
NFL Playoff Odds at BookMaker.eu
Patriots -15.5
Texans +15.5
Over/Under 44
When the Patriots Have the Ball…
As long as Brady is under center, the Pats are going to move the ball and score points. Even though he doesn’t have his favorite target, Brady has made a career of getting the ball to whoever’s open. Although he may be getting older, there’s no doubt that he is still elite and this season proved that he still has the magic touch.
Don’t be surprised if Dion Lewis gets a lot of touches in this game as the versatile back should receive the bulk of the carries and not LeGarrette Blount. Blount is only a runner without the tools to be a receiving back and is only decent in pass protection. Meanwhile, Lewis can catch the ball out of the backfield and has gotten much better in pass protection, allowing OC Josh McDaniels to be able to use him in a plethora of ways.
Martellus Bennett has also given the Patriots a weapon they haven’t had in the past, a complementary tight end to Rob Gronkowski. With Gronk’s injury, Bennett’s presence has been even more important and he has been able to fill into that role nicely. The Texans’ linebackers are great in coverage, but if he can make a few plays, that puts the Pats in an even better position.
When the Texans Have the Ball…
Houston wants to run the ball with Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue as much as possible and keep the pressure off Brock Osweiler. Miller and Blue couldn’t get much going last week against Oakland as the Raiders stacked the line of scrimmage to make Osweiler beat them. New England is going to implement a similar strategy and force Osweiler to make the throws he has struggled to make all season.
Getting a few big plays out of DeAndre Hopkins would go a long way to help Osweiler get his confidence. Hopkins hasn’t put up the numbers he did his previous seasons in Houston, and while he isn’t really to blame, a long catch or two would certainly help things. Will Fuller V is the deep threat for the Texans and he will be also asked to help out in this area.
The X Factor
There’s no doubt that Osweiler is the key to this game. Although Clowney is one of the best disrupters of the league he can only do so much and Brady is adept at neutralizing outstanding defensive players.
Osweiler was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL during the regular season, but played decent enough to lead the Texans past the Raiders last week. Oakland’s pass defense was the 25th best in the league and New England’s isn’t much better at 23rd best, so that puts even more pressure on him to come through.
For Houston to pull off a monumental upset, Osweiler has to play up to the contract that he signed. The Pats are going to be able to stop Houston’s running attack and that means the Texans are going to have to move the ball through the air to beat this defense. If Osweiler isn’t up to the challenge, Houston doesn’t stand a chance.
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