Come on Seattle! There is a lot of buzz about this Seattle Seahawks team, even though they are the No. 3 seed in the NFC. Seattle has already defeated Atlanta and New England this season, but unlike the past few seasons where the Seahawks were the darlings of the advanced metrics community, this season the advanced numbers only have them as the 9th best team in the NFL. However, they will be facing one of the lowest ranked teams by DVOA when they face the 27th ranked Detroit Lions at home on Saturday night.
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NFL Playoff Odds at BookMaker.eu
Seahawks -8
Lions +8
Over/Under 42.5
When the Seahawks Have the Ball…
This was the Jimmy Graham that Seattle was hoping for when it picked him up from Carolina in 2015. Graham is a physical freak and extremely difficult for teams to match up against with a rare blend of size and athleticism. His post-up move against an undersized San Francisco defensive back in the season finale highlighted just what he is capable of and gives Russell Wilson an emergency option when he is under pressure. Detroit has the worst pass defense in the league according to Football Outsiders, and it’s not even close, meaning that Graham should have a huge day.
Seattle will need Wilson and the passing attack to have a solid performance, because the running game has been unable to find consistency this year. Injuries have led to the Seahawks continually cycling running backs and as a result no player rushed for over 500 yards during the regular season. Alex Collins and Thomas Rawls will likely see the most work against the Lions, but this team doesn’t have a runner it can rely on to pick up three yards on third-and-short.
When the Lions Have the Ball…
Detroit has a similar offensive formula to Seattle, but doesn’t have near the talent. The Lions also have a tight end that they have relied on quite a bit this season in Eric Ebron. Ebron has caught at least four passes a game since December and Matt Stafford likes to look for him when he is matched up on a linebacker in coverage.
The Lions also have a patchwork running game that has been completely ineffective on the season. Theo Riddick led all running backs with 357 yards, but this team missed the explosiveness that a runner like Ameer Abdullah would have provided. Abdullah has been out since the second week of the season while recovering from a torn ligament in his foot and without his speed and explosiveness, only once has a Lions running back picked up 30 yards or more on a run. Detroit isn’t going to run very well on Seattle and it don’t be surprised if Jim Bob Cooter moves away from the run entirely.
The X Factor
Seattle might not have Earl Thomas roving the secondary, but this is still one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Seahawks had the 5th-best defense in the NFL this season per DVOA and the rush defense was second-best in football as well. Seattle’s linebacking corps is one of the best around and if Detroit averages more than 3 yards a run against them, it will be a surprise.
Everyone knows how good the defensive backs are and their ability to cover receivers for extended periods of time has helped Seattle be one of the best defenses in the NFL at getting to the quarterback. The Seahawks are tied for second in sacks with 42 on the year and that has put opponents in a lot of third-and-long situations. That is when this defense can force turnovers and if the Lions don’t stay out of those down and distance scenarios, they are going to find it hard to win.
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