If the highest ever Super Bowl total is any indication, we are in for a wild ride as the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons collide in what is likely to be an offensive clinic led by a pair of quarterback on top of their respective games. Of course, Tom Brady has already established himself as games most prolific postseason QB, but Matt Ryan tore up the Packers in the conference title game and is a great player to rally around for the anti-Patriots crowd.
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NFL Playoff Odds at BookMaker.eu
Patriots -3
Falcons +3
Over/Under 57.5
When the Patriots Have the Ball…
What can’t Tom Brady do? He led the Patriots to a lopsided win over Pittsburgh in the conference title game, throwing for 384 yards and three scores while the running game went silent.
The defense, of course, is a major storyline against a very strong Steelers offense, but Brady continued to move the ball down the field.
Brady owned the Steelers and had just 10 interceptions, mostly a result of dropped passes or throw-away tosses. He was on as he always is during the playoffs. He’ll also get what should be an easier defense. The Falcons ranked No. 27 in points allowed and No. 28 in passing yards and touchdowns given up in the regular season.
To make things worse for the Falcons, the Patriots already know how to handle their system—except with better players and more success.
The Falcon’s head coach, Dan Quinn, was the defensive coordinator for the Seahawks two years ago. In that game, the Patriots showed they could navigate Seattle’s defense despite lofty defensive stats for the unit in the regular season.
Brady was picked a couple times in the contest, but ended with 328 yards and four touchdown passes while the rushing game—also led by LeGarrette Blount—gave the team just enough to keep the ball moving.
In the end, Brady and Bill Belichick had the perfect game plan against a very similar defensive system to what the Falcons now deploy.
When the Falcons Have the Ball…
Given the above, we know that the Patriots will put points on the board in a big way, but can Atlanta’s relentless offense continue tearing up the opposition like they did to Green Bay?
The Packers were disseminated in the secondary and Ryan took advantage, finding Julio Jones nine times for 180 yards and a pair of scores while tallying 392 total yards and completing 27 of 38 passes for four touchdowns and no interceptions.
He was unstoppable in the win. The passing attack led the way while Atlanta ran the ball 30 times, but managed just 101 total yards despite taking a quick early lead and being in position to keep the clock moving and the ball on the ground.
Atlanta’s offense is their ticket to an upset, but how will Ryan react to playing in the Super Bowl? He lacks the experience that Brady and the Pats have. He—and the team—showed well in their two playoff games, but both of those came at home. They’ll be on neutral turf.
Now, Atlanta did play really well against the Seahawks in the divisional round, scoring 36 against a very strong defense so that’s encouraging.
While New England is tougher against the run and boasted an NFL low 15.6 PPG allowed in the regular season, they’ve been beatable from time-to-time in the air.
They handled Ben Roethlisberger pretty well, though he did throw for 314 yards, but the rushing game was silenced and they were able to take care of business in the red zone, holding the Steelers to nothing but field goals until the final few minutes.
Don’t look for big games on the ground from Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman, though they may have a key run or two, if the Pats can stop Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams, they can stop Freeman and Coleman. Instead, this is about the arm of Ryan.
The X Factor
The main narrative of this game is Ryan versus Brady. The proven, annual Super Bowl Goliath that is New England against the jump-start, fun loving David as portrayed by Atlanta.
That said, the real X-Factor could come down to the matchup of Patriots corner Malcolm Butler against Julio Jones.
Butler did well to shut down Antonio Brown against the Steelers. New England made containing him and Bell a priority and the effort paid off.
That said, there’s a significant height mismatch between the two players and Jones could exploit that if Ryan and place the ball over the top. Jones has both size and physicality in his bag of tools and he’ll use both. It’s important that he’s able to open up the field for Ryan though if Butler does get the call against Jones, that may happen anyway as Butler will likely need help over the top give Jones’ size.
If the Pats are able to effectively shut down Jones, Mohamed Sanu becomes the key with Freeman and Coleman contributing in the passing game even if the Pats defense doesn’t allow them to factor in too heavily on the ground.
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