Things are a little bit different this time around. The Bills crushed the Dolphins 41-14 five weeks ago in Miami, but that was B.C. – before Campbell. Despite getting ripped by New England last week, which isn’t so bad since the Pats are destroying everyone, new coach Dan Campbell has the Dolphins playing with energy and effort. Could that be enough to overcome the quarterback-challenged Bills?
ODDS
Buffalo opened as a 3-point favorite with the total at 46. Miami is 0-3 SU and ATS against AFC East competition this season and just 7-14 SU against the division since 2012. The Bills get some key players back following the bye week and should be pumped against a team they waxed 41-14 in Week 2.
KEY INJURIES
Cameron Wake – Miami’s Pro Bowl defensive end was lost for the year with an Achilles tear suffered in the team’s last game. Wake has a team-high seven sacks this season and will be replaced by Derrick Shelby, who is known more for defending the run than rushing the passer. Second-year player Terrence Fede could also see some time at the position.
Ja’Wuan James – Is out with a toe injury. Backup tackle Jason Fox, who started two games earlier this season when Branden Albert was sidelined, will get the nod at right tackle in place of James.
Percy Harvin – While the Bills are starting to get several of their walking wounded back on the practice field, Harvin isn’t one of them, and he’s reportedly getting increasingly frustrated over the knee and hip injuries that have him shelved indefinitely.
KEY MISMATCH
Despite an alarming lack of a pass rush, the Bills have held up well defending the pass, even without safety Aaron Williams. They rank 20th in pass defense, but much of that can be pinned on the Week 2 shredding dished out by New England and Tom Brady, who threw for 466 yards. That game aside, it has been solid as cornerback Stephon Gilmore is having a terrific year and rookie corner Ronald Darby leads the NFL in pass breakups. At safety, Corey Graham is solid in coverage and leads the team in tackles. The big disappointment is the pass rush with just 11 sacks after leading the NFL with 57 a year ago. Rex Ryan has not been as aggressive in his blitz calls, as many expected, drawing the ire of some of his defenders. Miami’s offensive line situation might get worse before it gets better with starting tackle James out with an injury. Dolphins’ quarterback Ryan Tannehill was sacked five times by the Patriots in his last game and said it was New England’s games up front that led to problems in pass protection. Watch for Ryan to unleash some elaborate schemes up front because Tannehill hasn’t yet shown he can consistently carry an offense.
KEY STAT
27.2 – Miami’s third-down conversion rate. The Dolphins are next to last in the NFL converting on the money down. Buffalo allows opponents to extend drives 38 percent of the time on third downs.
BETTING ANGLE
Ryan has never given a team an entire bye week off as a head coach, meaning no practice, no walkthroughs, no meetings, until this past week, because the Bills desperately needed it. Given the state of Buffalo’s roster through the first half of the season, the team’s 3-4 record isn’t that terrible and they remain in the thick of the crowded and mediocre AFC. Against Jacksonville two weeks ago, the Bills were without six starters and a key backup on offense, and two starters on defense. And they still nearly won the game before succumbing late. Ryan thinks the week off is going to be enough time to get just about everyone back and ready for the division showdown with the Dolphins, which starts a string of three games in 15 days, all against the AFC East. There’s no denying the course the season takes could hinge on this critical three-game stretch and having key players back in the lineup at least gives the Bills a chance.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Bills are getting healthy and that’s a promising sign for a club that was supposed to contend for a playoff spot in the AFC. A win Sunday and Buffalo is back in the discussion in what is a watered-down conference. Miami needs to reboot after getting thrashed in New England last time out. Not only did the Dolphins lose big, they also lost Wake, and that’s a huge blow with not much depth behind him. Miami had played well in the first two games under Campbell and a bounce-back effort is needed to continue the momentum. Or maybe the effects of a new coach have already worn off. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is expected to start for the Bills and he gives them a much better chance than E.J. Manuel. Taylor had an exceptional game when the teams met in Miami in Week 2 and, while the score should be closer, the outcome will be the same.
Buffalo 31, Miami 24
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