The Dolphins are rolling under interim coach Dan Campbell and get their first real test with a visit to undefeated New England in an AFC East confrontation on Thursday Night Football. Miami evened its record with a thrashing of Houston on Sunday, looking like a much different team. We’ll see how much influence Campbell has when the Dolphins look for their first win at Gillette Stadium since 2008.
ODDS
New England opened as an 8-point favorite with the total at 51.5. Miami easily covered in its last two games since Campbell took over and is 3-3 ATS overall. The Pats are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six home games against the Dolphins. The line was quickly wagered down to -7.5 while the total fell to 51.
KEY INJURIES
Brice McCain – Didn’t play Sunday due to a knee injury and is doubtful for Thursday’s game. The Dolphins also saw cornerback Zack Bowman exit Sunday with a shoulder injury, leaving the team thin in the secondary. Jamar Taylor started in place of McCain and will likely get the nod if McCain is unable to go.
Dion Lewis – Missed Sunday’s game with an abdominal injury and is questionable to play against Miami. James White was New England’s top passing back against the Jets with LeGarrette Blount as the power back. The Pats abandoned the run game Sunday, collecting just 16 yards on nine attempts.
KEY MISMATCH
The Patriots can win in many ways. With running backs Lewis and Brandon Bolden hurt, with the offensive line banged up and the Jets having a strong run defense, the Pats ignored the ground game Sunday, as Tom Brady was the team’s leading rusher with 15 yards, 11 on one scramble and one on a touchdown jump over the pile from the one-yard line. Brady threw for 355 yards, his 68th 300-yard game, and has thrown at least two touchdown passes in all six games this season. He engineered two fourth quarter scoring drives to pull out the win over New York with tight end Rob Gronkowski hauling in a career-high 11 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown.
KEY STAT
50.9 – New England’s third-down conversion rate. The Patriots are the best in the NFL at extending drives on third down. Miami allows opponents to convert 38.8 percent of the time on third down to rank 17th in the league.
BETTING ANGLE
The AFC East runs through Foxborough and the Dolphins better be prepared. The Patriots came from behind to beat the Jets on Sunday for their 47th victory in their last 51 home games and their 77th straight when leading at halftime. The Dolphins are now playing like the team they were supposed to be at the start of the year. But perspective is urged since Miami beat two sub-.500 teams in Tennessee and Houston. The Dolphins will get a true test on Thursday to see just how much of an impact Campbell has made. But there is no denying this is a different team. Campbell came in talking tough and immediately won over the fan base and the players. It was apparent former coach Joe Philbin lost the team and Campbell’s promise that the team would play tougher, run the ball more, and attack defensively has paid off so far. A win over the division-leading Pats would do even more for the team’s outlook.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Dolphins have had quite the turnaround under Campbell with a pair of dominant performances to get back to .500. Those wins came against Tennessee and Houston, who are a combined 3-10 after seven weeks, so take that for what it’s worth. There is a much bigger opponent looming and we’ll see just what kind of impact the interim coach has. But Miami looked like the team we expected. Ryan Tannehill has transformed since the coaching change and so has the Dolphins’ defense. They’ll need to keep up the strong play against the unbeaten Patriots, who just took care of the best defense in the league with a win over the Jets on Sunday. Brady looks unstoppable and the Pats are simply too good at home. The Dolphins will keep it close, but turnovers in the second half will lead to their demise.
New England 27, Miami 24
The NFL odds for this Thursday contest were first released by BookMaker and the Patriots were positioned as 8-point favorites with a total of 51.5. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
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