The only game in the NFL this week that features two teams with winning records takes place in Denver when the Broncos host the Minnesota Vikings. Everyone can get back on the Vikings bandwagon following a pair of convincing home wins over Detroit and San Diego. But we know what happened when the Vikes were on the road in their opener. In order to get the wagon moving faster, the Vikings need a victory over a team with a winning record – something that hasn’t happened in the Mike Zimmer era.
ODDS
Denver opened as 7-point chalk with a total of 45. The line has wavered between -7 and -6.5 but remains firm. Two teams with exceptional defenses could lead to few points and the team getting a touchdown looks like a wise choice. The betting public likes defense as well with the total falling to 43.
KEY INJURIES
Charles Johnson – Missed practice this week as he continues to recover from a rib injury sustained in last week’s game. Johnson returned to the game briefly before leaving again for good. Cordarrelle Patterson likely would step into the receiver spot vacated by Johnson.
Ty Sambrailo – Didn’t practice this week because of a shoulder injury and is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. Denver’s starting left tackle sustained the injury blocking for C.J. Anderson last week but remained in the game.
KEY MISMATCH
After a defensive collapse in a season-opening loss at San Francisco, it’s apparent now the Vikings are out to punish quarterbacks this season. It was evident on the face of a battered Matthew Stafford in Week 2. And again last week when the Chargers used a timeout to let Phillip Rivers catch his breath after a hit from Anthony Barr. The Vikings recorded 20 hits in the past two weeks and used consistent pressure to virtually eliminate the threat of a downfield passing game. Minnesota has forced throws on an average of 2.24 seconds, and opponents have tried just five passes of 20 yards or longer in the past two weeks. The Vikings ability to force a quick release and panic quarterbacks is worth plenty. They’re a year further along in the mastery of coach Mike Zimmer’s double-A gap blitz look, which puts one, or both, linebackers on either side of the center in nickel packages. From there the options are endless. The Vikings will have a tall task this week against Peyton Manning. They’ll try to disguise their pressure packages and confuse an offensive line that has allowed eight sacks.
KEY STAT
+6 – Denver’s NFL-best turnover margin. The Broncos have 10 takeaways, the second-highest total in the league. Minnesota has done a nice job of holding onto the football with just three turnovers on the year, but will face a swarming Denver D.
BETTING ANGLE
The Broncos have been nearly unbeatable at home since Manning arrived in the Mile High City and they’ll try to continue that run of home dominance against the Vikings. Denver is 22-1 straight up and 15-8 against the spread in the last 23 regular season home games. The Broncos haven’t lost at home since Dec. 12, 2013 to the Chargers. Unlike past seasons, the defense is carrying the load in 2015, allowing only 16.3 points per game and coming up with huge plays to keep the Broncos unbeaten. Minnesota has picked up the play on defense also, holding Detroit and San Diego to 30 points combined the last two weeks. Both teams pride themselves on strong defenses, and that’s what should take center stage in this matchup. This one has the look of a low scoring affair giving the under plenty of value.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Folks have been predicting the demise of Manning and the Broncos since they stumbled to the finish line last season. It hasn’t been pretty but Denver is again off to a fast start and paving the way in the AFC West. But the Broncos still appear to be vulnerable. Manning is looking his age and the running game is non-existent. Minnesota brings a power ground game with Adrian Peterson turning back the clock a few years behind improved play from a maligned offensive line. And an ascending young defense has wreaked havoc on opposing quarterbacks the last two weeks. But the Broncos have that Denver mystique, Manning, the league’s stingiest defense and kicker Brandon McManus, who will be the difference in a close game.
Denver 22, Minnesota 20
BookMaker sent out the NFL spread for this Sunday game at Denver -7 with a total of 45. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, totals and spreads. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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