The Patriots and Colts are doing their best to downplay the significance of their Deflategate rematch. But the game has been circled since the schedule came out, it’s being broadcast in primetime on Sunday Night Football and it’s one of the most highly anticipated contests of the regular season. There is also no question each team would like to crush the other.
ODDS
New England opened as a 7-point favorite with a total of 54.5. Early money on the visitors pushed the spread up a field goal to -10. Indy rates as one of the worst bets in the NFL with a 1-4 ATS record and failed to cover in its two home games.
KEY INJURIES
Dion Lewis – Was limited in practice with an abdominal injury and is listed as questionable. He’s played the most snaps of any Pats running back this season. LeGarrette Blount and James White are top backups.
Nate Solder – Tom Brady’s blind side protector is out for the season after tearing his right biceps. The Pats have a few options to fill the important spot. They could move right tackle Sebastian Vollmer to the left side like they did in 2009. Or backup Marcus Cannon could take over, which is what happened last week when Solder went down.
KEY MISMATCH
New England ran the ball at least 40 times in each of its last three meetings with the Colts. While Indianapolis is statistically better against the run, this could be the first time this season the Patriots try to establish the running attack early on with LeGarrette Blount getting the call rather than using the spread sets with Dion Lewis in the backfield. Even if Blount gets his chances to churn out big numbers again, Tom Brady will use that success to set up the play-action game for tight end Rob Gronkowski and the rest of the Pats’ proven pass catchers. Brady and his weapons have been on a tear this season, with only line issues at various points in protection doing anything to derail the New England attack. That unit may get a rare chance to run the ball and impose its will in Indy, which should only help the pass protection. In their last three games against the Colts, New England has 657 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, and won by an average score of 43-16.
KEY STAT
-7 – Indianapolis’ turnover margin. The Colts have the second-most giveaways in the NFL with 12 and their margin is next to last. New England is plus-five in turnover margin with seven takeaways.
BETTING ANGLE
Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck moved around on the practice field and threw the ball further than at any point since his shoulder injury that forced him to miss the last two games. So that means he’ll definitely be back under center when the Colts host the Patriots on Sunday, right? Not so fast. Luck was officially referred to as limited in practice, and coach Chuck Pagano isn’t ready to commit to him starting. Luck hasn’t been able to beat the Patriots at 100 percent yet, so playing against them at 75 or 80 percent will be an even steeper challenge. Luck is 0-4 and has turned the ball over 11 times in his career against New England. There’s no sign of a Super Bowl hangover for the Pats, who are a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Patriots have beaten the Andrew Luck-led Colts by a remarkable average of 29 points per game. Add in some motivation with the Colts being the perceived whistleblowers in the offseason chaos now known as Deflategate, and the Pats would surely love to see a similar margin on Sunday. New England certainly seems like the better team at the moment, and as long as the offense keeps humming, a blowout is a possibility. The Colts are riding a three-game winning streak, which is something to build on, but they came by a combined 12 points against AFC South opponents who collectively are 3-11. Luck is likely to play after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury, but even his return to the lineup won’t be enough to get the Colts into the win column against the Pats for the first time in the last seven tries.
New England 33, Indianapolis 23
The NFL betting lines for this Sunday contest were first released by BookMaker and the Patriots were positioned as 7-point favorites with a total of 54.5. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The matchup between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts will go down Sunday, October 18, 2015, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium. The game will be broadcast nationally on NBC.
