Fresh from a satisfying win over rival Indianapolis in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game, the undefeated Patriots host the surprising New York Jets with first place in the AFC East on the line. New England can widen its lead in the division by beating the Jets for the eighth time in the last nine meetings.
ODDS
New England opened as a 9.5 point favorite. Given how close recent encounters have been and improved play from the Jets, the number seems rather high. The line was wagered down to -8.5. The total opened at 49 and saw a drop to 47.5. The Jets are 2-0 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS overall this season.
KEY INJURIES
Buster Skrine – Suffered a concussion in last week’s game and is in the league’s concussion protocol, leaving his status for Sunday in question. The nickel back in the Jets secondary would be missed going against Tom Brady.
Matthew Slater – New England’s special teams captain was helped off the field last week and carted to the locker room with what was reported as a leg/knee injury. But he was back at practice this week in a limited capacity and is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.
KEY MISMATCH
Behind Chris Ivory, the Jets have the league’s best rushing offense. Ivory had 146 of the Jets season-high 221 ground yards in last week’s win over Washington, and New York averages 146.0 rush yards per game. He’s been dominant in the last two games rushing for 312 combined yards and is third in the NFL with 460. He’s more than halfway to his career-best of 833. And the Jets will face a New England defense that’s had some issues stopping the run. The Patriots rank 22nd giving up 114.2 yards per game. The Jets could also get a boost in their backfield with former Patriots running back Stevan Ridley back at practice this week for the first time since tearing ligaments in his left knee last year. Coach Todd Bowles said there’s “a chance” Ridley makes his Jets debut Sunday.
KEY STAT
3 – New England’s league-low turnover total. The Jets have 15 takeaways on the year, the third-highest total in the NFL and are plus-five in turnover margin.
BETTING ANGLE
Once again the Patriots are the class of the NFL, off to its first 5-0 start since an undefeated regular season in 2007. And they’ve had an overwhelming advantage in their series with the Jets recently. New England has won seven of the last eight against New York and Tom Brady is 21-7 in the series, including playoffs. But the past four matchups have been close, all decided by three or fewer points, with New England’s two wins last season coming by a combined three. The Pats have scored at least 28 points in each game this season and average 325.2 passing yards. But New England hasn’t faced a pass defense ranked higher than 17th. The Jets are No. 2 and lead the NFL in fewest points and total defense. Given how close the games have been and the improved play of the Jets, taking the points, even on the road, looks like a smart play.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
There are several storylines surrounding this key AFC East battle, not to mention that first place in the division is on the line. The Pats look like a determined and focused club after knocking off Indy in last week’s “Deflategate” rematch. They’ve also owned the Jets recently, winning seven of the last eight games. But the Jets are a different team. Rex Ryan isn’t around to bait the Pats and Bill Belichick with his senseless bluster and they have the league’s best defense. Darrelle Revis, who helped New England win a championship last season, will try to slow down the Pats’ powerful aerial game as part of one of the best secondaries in the NFL. New York’s defensive line is pretty good also and will take advantage of New England’s front that is without starting guard Nate Solder and injured backup Marcus Cannon. The Jets D slows down the Pats and New York does enough offensively to come away with an upset win.
New York 25, New England 23
The NFL odds for this Sunday contest were first released by BookMaker and the Patriots were positioned as 9.5-point favorites with a total of 49. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
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