While the quarterback matchup in the AFC will hog most of the headlines on Championship Sunday, the game to watch is in the NFC with two evenly-matched combatants battling for a trip to Super Bowl 50. Arizona and Carolina were the only teams to average over 30 points per game during the regular season and they also possess two of the stronger defenses in the NFL.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Carolina Panthers -3
Arizona Cardinals +3
Over/Under 47
ODDS ANALYSIS
Arizona has been profitable in this spot, going 6-0 SU and ATS in its last six games when tabbed as an underdog of three points or less. Totals bettors should note that the over is 6-2 in Carolina’s last eight and the Panthers were one of the top over teams during the regular season at 10-5-1. The total spiked to 48 while the line stood at Carolina -3.
KEY INJURIES
Alex Okafor – The Cardinals’ starting linebacker was put on injured reserve with a toe injury ahead of the team’s divisional round game with Green Bay. Defensive tackle Cory Redding also went on IR prior to last week’s game. According to coach Bruce Arians, the Cards came out of the Packers game with no significant injuries.
Jared Allen – Is doubtful to play in the NFC Championship after an MRI confirmed he broke a bone in his foot during the fourth quarter of Sunday’s win over Seattle. The Panthers will slide Kony Ealy into Allen’s defensive end spot.
KEY MISMATCH
Finally, after all these years, the crushing knee injury and eventual parting with the Bengals, and the odd stop in Oakland, Carson Palmer secured his first playoff win. His 349 yards and three touchdowns against Green Bay shouldn’t come as a surprise, not after he totaled 4,671 with 35 touchdowns during the regular season. It’s no shock, either, that his cast of receiving weapons, spanning Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd and even running back David Johnson, helped the offense total those numbers while the running game stalled. And while Carolina’s defense gets rightfully labeled as elite, the secondary outside of Josh Norman continues to look like nothing more than a collection of names thanks to the wear and tear of the season. It’s why the Seahawks got two touchdowns from Jermaine Kearse and one from Tyler Lockett. Norman might lock down one of Palmer’s weapons, but there’s always another to lean on in any situation.
KEY STAT
+20 – Carolina’s turnover margin. The Panthers led the NFL in differential during the regular season and forced two Seattle turnovers in their divisional round win. Arizona overcame a pair of turnovers against Green Bay and had 24 giveaways during the regular year.
BETTING ANGLE
Although home-field advantage is desired throughout the playoffs, the Cardinals might actually be in a better position to advance to Super Bowl 50 by playing at Carolina. Arizona has been a better team both offensively and defensively away from home this season. The Cards went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on the road, losing at Pittsburgh in Week 6. They’ve scored more points on the road than at home, which was highlighted by five games of 30 or more points – including three of 40 or more points. But remember, Cam Newton and company have not lost at home since Nov. 16, 2014 – a streak that reached 12 following Sunday’s win over Seattle.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
This game has all the makings of a classic. The teams are so closely matched it’s almost hard to tell them apart. Carolina does have home-field advantage, and it’s been just that. The Panthers have won 12 straight games in Charlotte going 8-4 ATS during that time, and the run included a wild card playoff victory over the Cards last season. But these aren’t the same Cards and playing on the road hasn’t fazed them. As good as both teams are offensively, they’re just as strong on defense. However, the Cardinals have a strong offensive line and if the unit gives Palmer time to distribute the football to his playmaking receivers, the Panthers are in trouble. Norman can’t cover everybody in the secondary and disguised coverages are not going to fool Palmer. Outside of one long run by Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers didn’t do a lot on offense. They were able to pound Seattle with the run, possess the football and control the clock. They also turned a pair of turnovers into 10 points. They won’t be as fortunate against the Cardinals.
Arizona 28, Carolina 24
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