The Denver Broncos ended their quarterback battle when Vance Joseph named Trevor Siemian the starter over Paxton Lynch. It’s the safe move as Siemian won’t make too many mistakes and the Broncos will rely on their stingy defense to win most games. Siemian earned the starting job last season, and while the Broncos posted a winning record, they missed the playoffs for the first time in six seasons. The newly anointed QB will face the Green Bay Packers in Week 3 of the NFL preseason.
This battle in Week 3 of the preseason will go down Saturday, August 26, 2017, at 9 p.m. ET at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Green Bay Packers +3
Denver Broncos -3
Over/Under 42.5
Odds Analysis
One team will see its perfect preseason come to an end in this one and the Broncos are favored by the standard field goal for being the home team. Both teams played their first two games as an underdog and covered with the Broncos playing over the closing total in both of theirs and the Pack cashing the under. Something’s gotta give. With Rodgers likely to play a series or two at most, the total seems a bit high.
Quarterback Rotation
We’re likely to see Aaron Rodgers for more than the one series he played last week. But if you’re looking for him to play much longer, don’t bet on it. Mike McCarthy knows exactly what he has in the two-time MVP and he isn’t going to risk throwing the season away in a meaningless game. Rodgers looked in mid-season form in his one drive against the Skins, going 6 of 8 with a scoring pass to Martellus Bennett and collecting 37 of the drive’s 75 yards through the air.
Brett Hundley, who started the opener and played a majority of snaps last week, will see action on Saturday following Rodgers. Hundley is still working his way into form from an ankle injury and had another sharp outing hitting 9 of 10 attempts for 107 yards and a score against the Skins. He also showed his mobility after being chased from the pocket several times.
Denver’s starters are expected to play at least the first half, according to Joseph, and that will give Siemian time to work with the first team offense in a game setting. Siemian replaced Lynch late in the second quarter last week and earned the starting gig by going 8 of 11 for 93 yards and leading the team to two touchdowns on three drives.
Lynch still needs some work and better not sulk about losing the starting job. He opened the game against the Niners and led three scoring drives, but he benefitted from turnovers and had a short field each time. He completed 9 of 13 throws, but managed just 39 yards. Kyle Sloter has actually been the most efficient, hitting 12 of 13 passes for 144 yards and a score in his two games.
Coaching History
Given his veteran roster and coaching experience, Mike McCarthy uses the preseason to evaluate talent and find depth for his football team. He’s rested a number of starters this year and his Pack are 2-0. Over the last 13 exhibition games, McCarthy and the Packers are 10-3 SU and ATS.
After spending the last 12 years as an assistant around the NFL, Joseph got the head job in Denver and has yet to lose. The Broncos won and covered their first two preseason games while cashing the over both times.
Free ATS Pick
You can expect Siemian to be jacked up after winning the starting quarterback job. It’s nothing new for him, however. Siemian had to beat out Lynch and Mark Sanchez last season and impressed his new coaches enough during camp and the preseason to get the gig again. Siemian was solid last season, but his completion percentage was below 60 and he tossed 10 picks.
Joseph doesn’t want his QB to chuck the ball around the yard. The offense will look to improve the run game behind a trio of backs and a revamped line while letting the defense do what it does best. And shutting down the opponent’s passing game is it. The No Fly Zone will be tested, at least for a few series, by Rodgers.
The game will turn in the second half when the Pack takes advantage of a depressed Lynch. Denver’s backup will be ready by the time the season starts, but it has to be gut punch losing the starting job to a guy who is less talented.
NFL Odds: Packers 24, Broncos 22
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