The Buffalo Bills, improbably, are in the playoffs. Now they are hoping their stay lasts for awhile. Buffalo had the perfect sequence of events happen on the last day of the season and sneaked into the AFC postseason as the final team.
They will hit the road for a matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It is a tough game for Buffalo as Jacksonville has arguably the best defense in the NFL and the home field advantage. The Bills are playing with house money at this point, and if they can come in loose and confident they may be able to stick around and push for the upset.
The Jaguars can be a volatile group and haven’t made the playoffs together. The Bills also ended a long playoff drought so it will be interesting to see how the teams respond to the bright lights of this one.
This AFC wild card contest will go down Sunday, January 7, 2018, at 1:05 p.m. ET at EverBank Field.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Buffalo Bills +8
Jacksonville Jaguars -8
Over/Under 40
Odds Analysis
The Jaguars are sizable favorites in this one, needing to win by more than a touchdown margin to cover the spread. Jacksonville only finished with one more victory than the Bills in the regular season but its point-differential was much better, which is usually a good indicator of future success.
The bettors believe the line is fair as the Bills are getting just over 50 percent of the action to cover. The scoring total is pretty low and the “under” is still the more popular choice as this could be a defensive battle.
The Jaguars are -420 favorites on the moneyline to cover this spread, while the Bills are +330 underdogs to pull the upset.
Injury Report
LeSean McCoy — The Bills’ top running back was carted off the field Sunday, during his team’s 22-16 win over Miami, and did not return. McCoy suffered a sprained ankle in the third quarter of the game. X-rays were negative, but he remains questionable ahead of the wild card game this week. McCoy is a huge part of Buffalo’s offense and has rushed for 1,138 yards and six touchdowns this season.
Shareece Wright — Buffalo’s cornerback missed Sunday’s game against the Dolphins due to a concussion. Wright entered concussion protocol following the Bills loss to the Patriots in Week 16. He has 37 tackles, an interception and a fumble recovery in his first year with Buffalo.
Cam Robinson — The Jaguars’ offensive lineman missed the season finale with an abdominal injury, but he is expected to play in the postseason. That’s a big key as Robinson has been a solid piece for the team this season.
Player To Watch
Blake Bortles — The Jaguars have a fantastic defense and should pull away for the win as long as their quarterback can just manage an average game. But that’s not always a given. Bortles has had an up and down year, throwing for 3,687 yards with 21 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.
He played poorly in the season finale against the Titans, completing only 15-of-34 passes for 158 yards with no touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. If he has another shoddy performance, it could allow the Bills to stay close.
The Jaguars defense is not likely to give up a lot of yards, but if Bortles turns the ball over it could be trouble.
Free ATS Pick
While Bortles is a wild card, the Jaguars have the advantage nearly everywhere else. Throw in the home field advantage, and this one is an easy call.
As long as Jacksonville can get a lead early, it should have no trouble taking care of business and advancing to the AFC Divisional Round. Buffalo was extremely lucky to even make the playoffs and won’t be hanging around.
Take the Jaguars to cover the spread despite the high number. The “under” is the choice as the Bills could have real trouble moving the ball.
NFL Odds: Jaguars 25, Bills 13
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