The New England Patriots won a thriller over the Steelers last time out to reclaim the top seed in the AFC standings. They can secure it by winning the final two games of the season, which begins with a Week 16 clash at home against the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo has plenty to play for as well since it is in the hunt for a wild card, but this is going to be an exceedingly tough game. The Bills are battling with several other teams for a playoff berth and a loss would be costly. An upset would be fantastic for Buffalo but it’s hard to figure out a way for it to claim such a win against an elite team while playing on the road.
All signs point toward a Patriots victory and they are heavy favorites to do so.
This contest in Week 16 of the regular season will go down Sunday, December 24, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Buffalo Bills +11.5
New England Patriots -11
Over/Under 47
Odds Analysis
The Patriots were nearly two touchdown favorites when this line was released but it has lowered a bit, which isn’t a surprise as the Bills are a quality team. New England is still a double-digit favorite, but a line of 13 points seemed too high and the early betting reflected that.
The scoring total is lower than most New England games as the Bills will run the ball plenty and hope to shorten the game.
Injury Report
Kelvin Benjamin — The Bills’ wide receiver has been dealing with a torn meniscus the last few weeks, an injury he suffered in Week 11 against Chargers. Benjamin missed the next two games due to the injury but returned in Week 14 against the Colts and also caught two passes against the Dolphins last week. Benjamin told reporters this week that he plans to have surgery during the offseason.
Chris Hogan — The New England wide receiver missed Sunday’s game against the Steelers with a shoulder injury. He has missed five games this season after sustaining the injury on October 29th. Hogan returned to field on December 11th but did not appear to be full-strength.
Rex Burkhead — The Patriots’ running back left Sunday’s win over the Steelers in the third quarter with a knee injury and did not return. Burkhead missed time earlier this season with a rib injury, but has been a beneficial part of the offense when healthy. He will undergo an MRI this week to reveal the severity of the injury.
Key Stat
17. That is how many years it’s been since Buffalo has made the playoffs, but the Bills have a chance to snap that streak this season. At 8-6, the team is still very much in the hunt for an AFC wild card spot heading into the final two games of the season.
The Titans and the Ravens are both 8-6 as well so a lot hinges on how these final two weeks pan out. Winning out is clearly the easiest path, but with the Patriots this week, it’s not the most likely one.
Still if the Bills lose to New England this week, they could keep their postseason hopes alive with a win over Miami next week and a 9-7 finish. But, at that point, it will depend on how the Titans and Ravens do as well so it won’t be completely in Buffalo’s hands anymore.
Free ATS Pick
The Bills could really use a win but it’s just not going to happen. The Patriots are cruising to another AFC East win but once again have bigger goals. They will take another step toward securing the top seed in the conference with a home win.
The spread looks accurate, but take Buffalo to get a late score to cover, even though this outcome won’t really be in doubt in the final quarter.
NFL Odds: Patriots 27, Bills 17
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