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The Jacksonville Jaguars used a big-time win over the Seahawks last time out to gain control of the AFC South. They can take another step toward controlling the division by knocking off the Houston Texans in Week 15. Both of these teams looked like contenders early in the season, but a torn ACL to Deshaun Watson helped sink Houston’s chances at a successful year.
The Jaguars look like one of the best teams in the AFC and can help their seeding by winning this game as they close in on the division title. The Texans don’t seem to have much of a prayer at all in this matchup. They will be heavy underdogs and the more intriguing thing will be whether or not they are going to be able to cover the spread.
Watch this regular season Week 15 matchup live on Sunday, December 17, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at EverBank Field.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Houston Texans +12
Jacksonville Jaguars -12
Over/Under 39
Odds Analysis
The Jaguars are heavy favorites to take care of business at home in this matchup. The betting public believes the line is too high as Houston is getting more than 62 percent of the action to cover this spread.
The scoring total is low, and that’s no surprise. The Jaguars have an elite defense, while both teams’ offenses leave plenty to be desired. The “over” is the more popular choice, though, as a defensive touchdown could contribute to more points than projected.
Injury Report
Tom Savage — Houston’s quarterback has been up and down this season, but he still seems like the best option with Watson on the shelf. However, Savage is in the concussion protocol and he does not seem likely to be available for this game. If he can’t go, T.J. Yates will be the man under center. A third-string quarterback against this great Jacksonville defense is not a good combination for the Texans.
Leonard Fournette — The Jacksonville running back is dealing with a quadriceps injury that kept him out of practice on Wednesday. It doesn’t seem like a big deal, but keep an eye on Fournette to make sure he practices on Thursday and Friday. He has exploded onto the scene as a rookie and is leading the way for the NFL’s best rushing attack. Chris Ivory is waiting in the wings if needed.
Allen Hurns —The Jacksonville receiver has missed the past four games with an ankle injury. He has done some light jogging at practice but has yet to be full-go. He may miss another contest, although Jacksonville has enough options to make up for his absence.
Key Stat
197.7. That’s the average number of pass yards per game the Jaguars are allowing, which is a really small number in an NFL which has gone to an air attack. Jacksonville has a great combination of players. A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey are elite cornerbacks, while Calais Campbell, Dante Fowler and Yannick Ngakoue get regular pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Myles Jack and Telvin Smith are athletic linebackers, as the coverage is almost always sticky everywhere on the field. The Texans had a fantastic young quarterback in Watson but Yates is not likely to have nearly as much success, especially against a ferocious defense.
Jacksonville is only allowing 15.5 points per game on the season and should be able to shut down Houston.
Free ATS Pick
The Jaguars don’t have a good passing game, and that’s really the only thing holding this team back from being elite. That might be a problem in the postseason, but it won’t be in this one.
The Jaguars should easily win this game, but this spread seems too high. Take the Texans to cover the spread, while the “over” is the choice on the scoring total.
NFL Odds: Jaguars 24, Texans 14
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