NFL ATS Picks - Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams Game Preview

The Indianapolis Colts’ chances of winning their Week 1 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams have dropped precipitously. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been ruled out of the game, robbing Indianapolis of their star passer.

The Rams will aim to take advantage by defending their home turf. While the Los Angeles offense is questionable, the defense is solid and should be able to do well. The Colts are the team more likely to make the playoffs this season, but not if Luck misses a significant chunk of time.

Scott Tolzien will aim to fill in capably, but it is a lot to ask for a career backup playing on the road against a talented team. Los Angeles has caught a big break and must take advantage by winning this season opener.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Sunday, September 10, 2017, at 4:05 p.m.ET at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Indianapolis Colts +3.5
Los Angeles Rams -3.5
Over/Under 42

Odds Analysis
The loss of Luck has made the Colts road underdogs in this matchup. The bettors believe the Rams will take care of business, as more than 54 percent of the money is on them to cover. Los Angeles was one of the worst teams in the NFL last season but the Luck injury plays that big of a factor in changing the spread.
The scoring total is unsurprisingly low as a Tolzien versus Jared Goff matchup at quarterback is uninspiring. The “under’ is being wagered on at nearly an 85 percent clip.

Injury Report

Aaron Donald - The Rams’ All-Pro defensive tackle isn’t hurt but he continues to hold out because of unhappiness with his contract. He hasn’t yet reported to the team, and if he doesn’t do so early this week there will be legitimate questions about his presence for this matchup. Donald is so talented he can show up and dominate, but he truly may choose to sit.

Vontae Davis -- The Colts cornerback has a groin injury that’s going to keep him out of this contest. The loss of Luck is the biggest blow but this is a tough one, as well. The Rams traded for Sammy Watkins a few weeks back and Indianapolis won’t be as well-equipped to handle him with Davis on the sideline.

Ryan Kelly -- Indianapolis’ center has a foot injury which may keep him out of this one as well. The Colts don’t have a great offensive line, but Kelly is a bright spot. If he can’t play and Donald does, the Colts are going to be at a massive disadvantage on the interior of the offensive line.

Matchup To Watch

The quarterbacks -- Tolzien has never won a starting job but will now get a chance to play in Luck’s absence. Indianapolis traded for Jacoby Brissett last week and he is an option if Tolzien falters, although it might be tough for Brissett to perform well immediately with such a limited knowledge of the offense.

Goff is a former No. 1 overall pick who struggled mightily last season. The addition of Watkins will help, and running back Todd Gurley has oodles of talent. The Colts aren’t very talented on defense so this is setting up well for Goff to have success, but he has to do so after so much trouble last season. This is a pivotal year for Goff to show he has what it takes to be a franchise signal-caller in the NFL.

Free ATS Pick

The Rams have to take advantage of all the Colts injuries. Los Angeles may not win a ton of games this year but this is one they can grab. Watch the Donald situation closely. If he plays, the Rams should be able to dominate defensively and cover this spread.

The Rams need to be patient early on and wear down the Colts with the running game. Look for Gurley to spring some big runs to help Los Angeles begin the season 1-0.

NFL Odds: Rams 21, Colts 17

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