NFL ATS Picks - Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns Game Preview

The Jacksonville Jaguars come into Week 11 with three straight wins, looking to make it four against the Cleveland Browns. The Jags defeated San Diego in overtime to move to 6-3 on the season last time out. They remain tied with Tennessee for the top spot in the AFC South and have a chance to keep the pressure on despite playing this one on the road.

The Browns are in a much different boat after falling to the Vikings on Sunday and moving to 0-9 on the season. Without much hope left, it’s going to be hard for Cleveland to keep finding reasons to show up but as the only remaining winless team in the NFL right now, the team is poised to get the top draft pick, so that’s some good news for the franchise.

Jacksonville shouldn’t have much trouble taking care of business in this one while Cleveland figures to remain winless when it’s over.

Kickoff for this regular season Week 11 game is set for Sunday, November 19, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at FirstEnergy Stadium.

Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu

Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5
Cleveland Browns +7.5
Over/Under 37.5

Odds Analysis

This line opened at Jaguars -9 but has come down quickly as the betting public believes that was too many points to give for any team at home against Jacksonville, even one as bad as the Browns. The Jaguars are still more than touchdown favorites, and if the line drops to -7 it would be a good time to jump on Jacksonville.

The scoring total is low as the Jaguars have an elite defense and a questionable offense. It’s easy to see this one becoming a low-scoring slugfest, and the “under” is the more popular pick even as the total has dropped a half-point in the last day.

Player to Watch

DeShone Kizer— It’s been a long season for Browns fans but, despite Sunday’s loss to the Lions, there is some optimism as they saw signs of growth from their rookie quarterback. It will be imperative that he continues to build up those things this week as he faces another big test against the Jaguars, who rank No. 4 in the NFL for total defense and No. 1 in points allowed.

Kizer still made his fair share of rookie mistakes last week against Detroit, but he was also responsible for two touchdowns — scoring on a one-yard quarterback sneak and also connecting with Kenny Britt from 19 yards out. The 21-year-old finished 21-of-37 for 227 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

He was only sacked once but took quite a few hits and suffered a rib injury during the third quarter, but re-entered the game late in the fourth quarter. Kizer is not yet the quarterback Cleveland hopes and needs him to be, but after a rocky rookie season, he certainly showed he is still making strides to improve last week.

Key Stat

14.9. That’s how many points per game this stout Jaguars defense is allowing this season. The unit ranks No. 1 in the NFL in that category this year and continues to show its value.

The defense has been the secret to the Jaguars’ success all season long and that was the theme again Sunday, as Jacksonville came up with two critical turnovers —first in the fourth quarter to send the game to overtime and then again in overtime to set up the game-winning field goal. Having a defense that’s not only able to make stops, but can come up with big plays when your offense falters and the game is on the line, is huge and that’s exactly what Jacksonville has.

The Jags have been particularly strong against the pass this year with the aide of defensive end Calais Campbell, who has 11 quarterback sacks on the season, just a half-sack behind the Cowboys’ DeMarcus Lawrence for the NFL lead. Campbell and defensive tackle Malik Jackson bring the pressure while cornerbacks A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey provide excellent pass coverage to make for a very tough unit to penetrate, especially with a rookie leading the way as is the case for Cleveland.

Free ATS Pick

The Jaguars are a dominant team, even if their record doesn’t necessarily show it. Take them to cruise to the win in this one. The spread is dropping but Jacksonville is the choice to cover.

The “under” is the call as Cleveland is going to have a really tough time moving the ball in this matchup.

NFL Odds: Jaguars 20, Browns 10

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