The New England Patriots surprised nobody by cruising past the Titans and into the AFC Championship game. But they are being joined by a shocking upstart. The Jacksonville Jaguars have been one of the worst teams in the NFL for the past half-decade but turned it around this year.
They rode an impressive defense to the Divisional Round and then used some impressive offense to outlast the Steelers and make it to within one win of the Super Bowl. The Jaguars will have to go on the road and face off with the best organization in the NFL, but the team does have enough confidence as to where it shouldn’t be overwhelmed by the situation.
The Patriots will be heavy favorites and it will be interesting to see if Jacksonville can hang tough behind an elite defense.
This AFC Championship game matchup will take place on Sunday, January 21, 2018, at 3:05 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars +9
New England Patriots -9
Over/Under 46
Odds Analysis
The Patriots are nearly double-digit favorites at the home in this one. The early action is on New England to cover this spread, as more than 67 percent of the action is heading its way. The Patriots were 13-point favorites in the last round against Tennessee and covered easily.
The Jaguars were seven-point underdogs against the Steelers and not only covered but pulled off the upset. The scoring total is 46, which gives respect to both New England’s high-powered offense and Jacksonville’s tough defense.
Injury Report
Leonard Fournette — The Jaguars’ star rookie running back injured his ankle in the first half against the Steelers and temporarily left the game. He was able to return in the second half and finished with 25 carries for 109 yards and three touchdowns. Even though he did go back in, there is a concern the injury could worsen so keep a close eye on it. He is a huge part of the offense.
LaAdrian Waddle —The Patriots’ right tackle suffered a knee injury against the Titans and didn’t return. The Jaguars have a very good pass rush and the best way to slow New England is by getting pressure. Waddle may be able to play in this one but it is too early to know. Check back for his availability.
Dante Fowler — The Jaguars’ defensive end suffered a shoulder injury in the second half against Pittsburgh and didn’t return to the game. Jacksonville has other talented pass-rushers but more depth is always better and he would be a key piece sidelined if Fowler can’t go in this one.
Matchup To Watch
Tom Brady vs. the Jaguars’ pass defense — New England’s superstar quarterback is closing in on yet another MVP award and was at the height of the powers last week. Brady threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns as New England easily distanced itself from the Titans.
The task gets exponentially tougher in this one. The Jaguars had the top-ranked passing defense in the regular season, allowing only 170 yards per game. They had 21 interceptions during the season and gave up an opposing passer rating of just 68.5.
It was a down performance on Sunday against Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger completed 37-of-58 passes for 469 yards with five touchdowns, although he did throw an interception and linebacker Telvin Smith returned a sack-fumble for a touchdown.
The Jaguars boast two of the best cornerbacks in the NFL in A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey. They also have rangy linebackers in Smith and Myles Jack. If Brady has the type of success Roethlisberger did, the Jaguars will likely be in trouble, but the Jags’ pass defense could also step up and make life tough on Brady.
Free ATS Pick
It’s hard to pick against Brady at home, but he will have some trouble in this game. The Jacksonville pass-rush has to get home, and that’s never easy against a quick-strike offense like New England’s but if Brady is rattled this one should stay close.
Take the Patriots to win and advance to yet another Super Bowl, but the Jaguars are the choice to cover the spread. The “under” is the choice on the scoring total.
NFL Odds: Patriots 25, Jaguars 20
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