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After blowout wins over the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville looks like it will exceed expectations in 2017. The question is, by how much? If the Jaguars are truly playoff contenders, they must win games like these on the road. New York picked up its first victory of the year in a dominant defensive effort against the Miami Dolphins last time out, and if it plays well again there is certainly a possibility of pulling the upset.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 3 game is set for Sunday, October 1, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5
New York Jets +3.5
Over/Under 39.5
Odds Analysis
The Jets were picked against often last week as home underdogs but blew out the Dolphins. That makes for a buyer beware scenario in this one, but Jacksonville is still the more popular choice to cover the spread, with 60 percent of the early action on the Jaguars.
The scoring total might be the lowest of the week, as each team has an impressive defense and a suspect offense. The “under” has been wagered on in nearly 80 percent of the early action, so the low total is clearly not scaring people away.
Injury Report
Matt Forte-- The Jets running back suffered a toe injury on Sunday against the Dolphins. It doesn’t seem to be a huge issue, and at this point it seems more likely than not he plays against the Jaguars. Even if he misses the game, Bilal Powell will be ready to assume a bigger load, and he is arguably the more talented running back at this point in their careers anyway.
Jaelen Strong -- It’s been an interesting first month of the season for the former third-round pick. Strong was suspended early on and then released by the Houston Texans. The Jaguars picked him up, but then a hamstring strain sidelined Strong last week in the team’s blowout win over the Ravens in London. Strong has some talent and Jacksonville has a void after the season-ending knee injury to star receiver Allen Robinson, but he doesn’t figure to make much of an impact in this one.
Key Stat
38. That’s the positive point-differential of the Jaguars through three games, which is the best in the NFL. Blowout wins are usually the sign of a good team, and Jacksonville has won decisively over the Texans and Ravens because of their strong defense.
The Jaguars still have a big question mark at quarterback in Blake Bortles, but if the defense dominates and running back Leonard Fournette continues to churn out yardage, it could be a recipe for success. This is a big game for Jacksonville, a road contest which could push its record to 3-1 with a victory. The Jets showed last time out that they won’t roll over, especially at home, but the Jaguars could really start turning some heads with another lopsided victory.
Free ATS Pick
Jacksonville is too flawed offensively to dominate this one, but it should come away with a hard-earned win. The Jets’ defense found something last time out as it held down the Dolphins, and have the type of personnel to keep Jacksonville in check.
The Jaguars will be able to overcome the road scenario and come away with a close victory on a last-second field goal, although the Jets are the choice to cover. The scoring total is too low. Take the “over” in this matchup.
NFL Odds: Jaguars 23, Jets 20
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