NFL ATS Picks - Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers AFC Divisional Round Preview

2018-NFL-Divisional-Sunday-1-preview-jaguars-vs-Steelers-Bet-Online

The lack of playoff experience didn’t faze the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense on Sunday, as they dominated in a low-scoring win over the Buffalo Bills. The degree of difficulty will rise considerably in the AFC Divisional Round when the Jaguars hit the road to face off against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Jacksonville went to Pittsburgh and won during the regular season but will be sizable underdogs in this one. The Steelers have a much better offense as well as the home field advantage, which is why the oddsmakers have pitted them as comfortable favorites.

The Jaguars will need to do much better offensively than they did against the Bills to have a shot at pulling off the upset.

This AFC Divisional Round contest will go down Sunday, January 14, 2018, at 8:15 p.m. ET at Heinz Field on CBS.

Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu

Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5
Over/Under 41

Odds Analysis

The line opened up as the Steelers a touchdown favorite and has since increased by a half-point. That’s critical, because games can often end as a seven-point margin, which would give the Jaguars the cover in this instance.

Even though Jacksonville is getting plenty of points, the Steelers are the more popular choice, as 81 percent of the action is on them to cover. The scoring total is lower than most Pittsburgh games because Jacksonville’s defense is great and its offense poor.

The “under” is getting the majority of the action at 70 percent, which isn’t a surprise considering the Jaguars combined to score only 13 points with the Bills last week.

Injury Report

Antonio Brown - The Steeles can breathe a sigh of relief as it seems their superstar wide receiver will be ready to go in this game. Brown suffered a calf injury in Week 15 against the Patriots and hasn’t played since but looks like he will be at full strength. He will be badly needed as the Jaguars have an elite pass defense.

Cam Robinson- The Jaguars’ offensive tackle suffered an abdominal injury recently but was able to play in Sunday’s win over the Bills. The team’s offensive line has been solid and Robinson has been a key piece. He should be good to go for this one.

Marqise Lee - The Jaguars’ wide receiver missed several weeks with an ankle injury but returned for the wild card game. He carried the ball once for five yards but didn’t have a reception. That wasn’t really his fault, as Blake Bortles threw for only 87 yards in the contest. Lee is a good weapon to have in this one.

Last Meeting

The Jaguars should be confident in their chance to win this game as they pummeled the Steelers, 30-9, in a regular season matchup. Ben Roethlisberger was picked off five times in that game, including interception returns for touchdowns by Telvin Smith and Barry Church as Jacksonville pulled away for the win.

That will be the recipe again. It’s really hard for opponents to throw on the Jaguars, and Roethlisberger has to take much better care of the ball. The Steelers don’t have to force it, as the Jacksonville offense is playing poorly and may not be able to drive down the field consistently in this one.

Bortles threw for only 95 yards in the first matchup but he wasn’t needed because the defense was so dominant.

Free ATS Pick

This spread is much too high, and bettors should be all over the Jaguars. Jacksonville has an elite defense and should be able to keep this game close throughout. An upset is even a possibility, and that would pay off handsomely on the moneyline.

Jump on Jacksonville as the oddsmakers are not giving the Jags enough respect in this matchup. Take the “under” as it should be a defensive battle despite the presence of Roethlisberger, Brown and Le’Veon Bell.

NFL Odds: Jaguars 17, Steelers 16

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