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The Jacksonville Jaguars have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL this season, winning games they were expected to lose and underperforming in others. They are 2-2 on the year and tied atop the AFC South and would love to pull off another upset this week. They are going to be significant underdogs when they face off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5.
While the AFC has been topsy-turvy in the earlygoing, Pittsburgh has been pretty good, starting the season 3-1 despite a loss to the Bears. They are hoping to push for a top seed in the playoffs and must take care of business in games like this in order to make a run at that.
Watch this regular season Week 5 matchup live on Sunday, October 8, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Heinz Field.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -8.5
Over/Under 44
Odds Analysis
The Steelers are more than a touchdown favorite, which is enough to bring some money in on the Jaguars to cover. The spread gives some leeway for Jacksonville backers as long as they can keep the game reasonably close. More than 62 percent of the money is on the Jaguars to cover.
The scoring total is low, especially considering the Steelers’ offensive firepower. Jacksonville’s defense is solid and Pittsburgh is also coming off a really good performance against the Ravens. The “under” has been the choice in more than 71 percent of the early action.
Matchup To Watch
Le’Veon Bell vs. the Jacksonville running game -- The Steelers boast one of the most talented running backs backs in the NFL, and the Jaguars need to improve quickly against the run after a poor effort in that area a week ago.
Jacksonville allowed the Jets to rack up 256 yards on the ground last week, which played a big role in New York’s 23-20 upset victory in overtime. They are facing a much better running back in this game. Bell isn’t off to the fastest start this season but does have 324 yards rushing and three touchdowns through four games.
He got the ball often against the Ravens last time out, rushing 35 times for 144 yards while adding 42 receiving yards. He is an impressive dual threat and Jacksonville can’t let him dominate in this matchup.
Key Stat
52.1. That was Blake Bortles’ quarterback rating last time out in the loss to the Jets, which was also a big reason for the loss. He finished the game just 15-of-35 for 140 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
Bortles has been very inconsistent throughout his career and the first four games of the season have been up and down. A Week 3 performance against the Ravens was stellar as he threw four touchdown passes, but otherwise Bortles has not been good.
This is a tough spot for him on the road against a decent Steelers defense, and if he struggles the Jaguars will have virtually no shot of pulling the upset.
Free ATS Pick
Jacksonville has easy wins over the Ravens and Texans but has also been blown out by the Titans in addition to the loss against the lowly Jets. Their success against good teams will come to an end in this one.
While the Jaguars have some solid players, they are not yet on the level of a team as good as Pittsburgh. Expect Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to have a solid game, which will be enough for the Steelers to win and cover this spread.
The “over” is the choice as the Jaguars will be able to get a late score to help push it that way, but the Steelers are still going to cruise in this one.
NFL Odds: Steelers 30, Jaguars 20
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