.jpg "NFL ATS Picks – Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots")
The Patriots have many of the same faces returning, led by quarterback Tom Brady, tight end Rob Gronkowski and mastermind coach Bill Belichick. Even though Brady is near the end of his career, he keeps playing at an extremely high level, proving that Father Time has yet to do damage.
The Chiefs went 12-4 a season ago but the Steelers knocked them out in the AFC Divisional Round. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes was taken in the first round of the draft, so there could be a changing of the guard soon in Kansas City, but for now there are a lot of familiar pieces heading into this one.
The Chiefs are a solid club but playing the best team in football on the road is a tough draw to start the year.
This contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Thursday, September 7, 2017, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas City Chiefs +8
New England Patriots -8
Over/Under 48
Odds Analysis
The Patriots are such a juggernaut that a game against one of their chief contenders for the AFC title is nearly a double-digit spread. Bettors aren’t scared away by the eight-point spread, as nearly 70 percent of the action has come in on the Patriots. For those thinking about betting on the Chiefs, wait until right before kickoff because the line may keep rising. For those that believe the Patriots will cover, jump on it now.
The spread may be problematic if the Chiefs keep it close, as plenty of games finish with a touchdown margin, and that would give the Chiefs a narrow cover. The “over” is the more popular choice on the scoring total, as it is getting wagered on 63 percent of the time.
Injury Report
Julian Edelman – The Patriots’ star slot receiver is out for the team after tearing his ACL in the preseason. It is a tough injury for the team to swallow but not one that can’t be overcome. Danny Amendola may get more time alongside offseason addition Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan. The Patriots added wide receiver Phillip Dorsett in a trade with the Colts earlier this week, but he’s unlikely to make a big impact in this game. Between Cooks and Gronkowski, Brady still has some elite weapons to throw to even with Edelman shelved.
Tamba Hali – The Chiefs placed the pass-rusher on the physically unable to perform list due to offseason knee surgery. Hali has long been one of the team’s best sack men, although his role was diminished in 2016. Justin Houston is still on one side while Dee Ford will take Hali’s role while he is injured. The Chiefs should still have a solid pass rush even without one of their main contributors.
Key Stat
40. That’s how old Brady is this season, and it’s rare for quarterback to continue producing at a high level at that age. However, Brady was most recently dicing up the Falcons in the Super Bowl and is once again expected to be one of the most valuable players in the entire NFL this season.
The Patriots are elite because of their passing game. Brady finished last season with gaudy numbers, throwing for 3,554 yards with 28 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He was in the running for the MVP award despite missing the first four games of the year due to suspension.
If Brady can continue to play at this elite level, there is no question the Patriots will once again be one of the best teams in the NFL. However, if he starts to decline in performance, it could open up the AFC for other contenders, like the Chiefs.
Free ATS Pick
The Patriots are just too good. Kansas City has some nice pieces but its strength is its defense, which is going to have a tough time keeping Brady in check. If the pass rush is dominant, Kansas City will have a chance to pull this upset. If not, the Chiefs with Alex Smith at the helm are not going to have enough firepower to keep pace.
Take the Patriots to win this game and cover at home.
NFL Odds: Patriots 30, Chiefs 20
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