.jpg "NFL ATS Picks – Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos")
Denver is only two seasons removed from a Super Bowl title and still has an elite defense, but the NFL is such a passing league now that failing to find success through the air really brings down their potential to make a deep playoff run.
San Diego has been hammered by injuries the past couple of years so outside expectations are low, but the oddsmakers have shown them respect in this one and quarterback Philip Rivers hopes to lead his team to the upset win on the road to start the year on a high note.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Monday, September 11, 2016, at 10:20 p.m. ET at Sports Authority Field at Mile High .
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5
Denver Broncos -3.5
Over/Under 43.5
Odds Analysis
The Chargers are getting more of the action as most bettors believe they will either lose by a field goal or less or pull off the upset. Nearly 70 percent of the money has been put on Los Angeles even though the vig is up to -119.
The scoring total is lower than most this week because Denver is so good defensively, and 61 percent of the action is jumping on the “under” as the Broncos’ offense could also keep the score down. The Chargers are an enticing +145 on the moneyline and are getting the majority of the action thus far. The Broncos are the -165 favorite to take care of business, and betting on them there would help avoid losing on the spread if Denver wins by a field goal.
Injury Report
Mike Williams -- The Chargers’ No. 1 draft pick has been out with a back injury and will still miss a few weeks, but he should at least be back this season. Los Angeles still has Keenan Allen leading the way at wideout while the ageless Antonio Gates should once again be one of Rivers’ favorite targets at tight end. The Chargers would have liked Williams in this game but his absence won’t ruin them.
Demaryius Thomas -- The Broncos’ No. 1 wide receiver suffered a minor groin injury in the third preseason game but practiced Wednesday and should play. He’s a critical piece for the Broncos. The aerial attack is the team’s weakest aspect and if Thomas was sidelined it would have made it that much harder.
Players To Watch
Von Miller and Joey Bosa -- Each team has one of the premier pass-rushers in the NFL, and if either can come up with a game-changing play it could go a long way in determining which side covers the spread.
Miller has long been one of the most feared rushers off the edge in the NFL. The Broncos’ star has 73 career sacks in only six seasons of work, including 13.5 last year. He will look to harass Rivers consistently in this one, and the Chargers will undoubtedly know where Miller is on each play.
Bosa doesn’t have the same extensive resume but looks to be a burgeoning star. He missed four games last year as a rookie but still finished with 10.5 sacks. Bosa should put up even gaudier numbers this year as he aims to establish himself alongside Miller as one of the most fearsome sack artists in the game.
Free ATS Pick
This is an interesting matchup of strengths, as the Los Angeles offense can move the ball on anyone when it’s clicking. However, the Broncos have a shutdown defense, and if Denver gets a lead the defenders go into attack mode.
Much of this will come down to how well Trevor Siemian plays at quarterback for the Broncos. If he can move the chains and orchestrate a couple touchdown drives, Denver should be in good shape. While this one should be pretty close throughout, watch for a big play from the Broncos defense late which helps wrap up the victory and a cover in this showdown.
NFL Odds: Broncos 24, Chargers 20
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