.jpg "Dolphins-at-Patriots-(CBS)")
The spread is a wonderful thing because it makes otherwise lopsided affairs interesting. The New England Patriots are going to dominate the Miami Dolphins in Week 12. That much is almost a formality. The question is, where will the final margin fall after garbage time?
New England is on a roll and once again establishing itself as the team to beat in the AFC. The Dolphins started the year hot but it was always a mirage and they have come back down to earth in recent weeks. Miami is ostensibly still in the postseason picture, but in realy it will take a miracle turnaround to be playoff-bound. The Patriots are going to make it tougher by handing the Dolphins a blowout loss on Sunday.
This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, November 26, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami Dolphins +16.5
New England Patriots -16.5
Over/Under 47
Odds Analysis
This is one of the biggest spreads that has been seen in 2017. The Patriots are one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Dolphins are one of the worst, which the oddsmakers understand very well. New England is a three-possession favorite and the majority of the action is still on them to cover, with more than 58 percent of the money heading that way.
The scoring total is interesting. New England has a dynamic offense but the Dolphins have a wretched one, so the total is high but not towering. The “over” is the more popular play early in the week.
Injury Report
Jay Cutler — The Dolphins’ quarterback left Sunday’s loss to the Buccaneers with a concussion. He seems on track to play in this game, although a close eye should be kept on his progress through the week. Cutler has not been good in 2017, throwing for 1,602 yards with 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions. However, he is still the best option, as Matt Moore struggled heavily in his stead earlier this year. If Cutler can’t go, the spread may move up even higher.
Chris Hogan — The New England wide receiver is out with a shoulder injury and his status for this one is up in the air. He has 33 catches for 438 yards and five touchdowns this season. The Patriots offense has been fine without him, as Brandin Cooks has stepped up and come up with big plays.
Marcus Cannon —The New England offensive tackle missed Sunday’s win over the Raiders with an ankle injury. The Dolphins have a decent pass-rush with Cameron Wake on the outside, and the easiest way to disrupt Tom Brady is by pressuring him. Cannon would be a nice boost if he can play.
Matchup To Watch
Miami defense vs. New England offense: The Dolphins seem unlikely to score regularly in this game, so the defense is going to need to come up with some plays in order to cover the spread. The Dolphins are giving up 25.4 points per game and nearly 350 total yards of offense.
Miami has been stingy at times but is going to be hard-pressed to keep the Patriots under control. Brady is having yet another MVP-type year at the age of 40 and New England is putting up 29.0 points per game, which is one of the highest marks in the NFL.
Brady is throwing for more than 300 yards per game and New England has a versatile group of running backs that can both run and catch. The Patriots’ offense has been rolling along for years and hasn’t slowed down in 2017.
Free ATS Pick
This game has a lopsided spread and it’s easy to understand why. The Patriots are a dominant team playing at home against an inferior foe. Some teams would let down in this situation but not New England.
The Dolphins are going to get dominated. The spread is extremely high, but even so, New England is the pick to cover. Take the “under” as New England will let off the gas pedal late.
NFL Odds: Patriots 31, Dolphins 10
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