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Denver is at home so it is not out of the realm of possibility, but it will still be a tough task. The defense has not been as stingy in past years while the offense is really struggling, which isn’t a good combination against such an impressive opponent.
New England was shaky early in the season but has ironed out those wrinkles and has quickly ascended to the team to beat in the AFC. The Patriots will aim to boost their chance at the top seed in the conference in the playoffs with a victory.
This contest in Week 10 of the regular season will go down Sunday, November 12, 2017, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -7.5
Denver Broncos +7.5
Over/Under 46
Odds Analysis
The Patriots are better than touchdown favorites, and the money is on New England to cover the spread at a rate of 84 percent. It’s an interesting line as the Broncos could lose by seven points and still cover, but the public believes New England is going to win this game pretty easily.
The scoring total is higher than most Broncos games because the defense isn’t playing too well and the Patriots can rack up the points in a hurry. The “under” makes more sense and has been the more common choice.
Injury Report
Stephon Gilmore — The Patriots cornerback suffered an ankle injury and a concussion in the Patriots win over Tampa Bay on October 5th and has missed three games since. Gilmore could return this week against Denver and if he does all eyes will be on the 27-year-old who had an up-and-down start to the season.
Chris Hogan — The Patriots wide receiver left Sunday’s game against the Chargers in a sling after suffering a shoulder injury in the fourth quarter. He was not at New England’s practice on Tuesday, but the severity of the injury is not yet known so it’s unclear if he will play this week in Denver.
Donald Stephenson — The Broncos offensive lineman has been out since injuring his calf in Week 7. He hasn’t practiced since then so the odds don’t seem very good that he returns to this game. If he starts getting some practice time in, that situation could change, but it seems more likely he is absent from this contest.
Key Stat
11. That’s how many games in a row the Patriots have won on the road coming into this matchup. The streak dates back to last season when the team went a perfect 8-0 on the road.
They have captured three road wins this season against the Saints, Buccaneers and Jets, but face a big test over this next stretch where five of their next six games will be on the road. New England defeated the Broncos 16-3 last season in Denver.
Free ATS Pick
The Broncos have decided to go with Brock Osweiler as their starting quarterback in this one as they don’t have very many good options. Trevor Siemian has already been benched, while Paxton Lynch is waiting in the wings but was beaten out for the starting job in the preseason and then got hurt.
The Broncos may have trouble scoring in this one, but their defense should help the team hang around. Between the home field advantage and a boatload of playmakers in the secondary, Denver isn’t going to get crushed. Take the Patriots to win this game, but the Broncos are the choice to cover.
The “under” is the easy call on the scoring total.
NFL Odds: Patriots 24, Broncos 17
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