NFL ATS Picks - New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Preview

Patriots-at-Buccaneers-(CBS)

The defense has been the culprit early on for New England, as it has been unable to slow the Chiefs or Panthers in their losses. The unit must pick it up against a Buccaneers offense that can be explosive behind quarterback Jameis Winston and wide receiver Mike Evans.

Tom Brady continues to play well, but if the defense can’t clamp down this one could be a shootout.

Watch this regular season Week 5 matchup live on Thursday, October 5, 2017, at 8:25 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium.

Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.5
Over/Under 54

Odds Analysis

The Patriots are favored but not by too much. The bettors like this spread for New England as 70 percent of the early action is on the Pats to cover. The scoring total is pretty high for an NFL game based on both teams’ offensive ability and the “over” has been the much more common choice, with more than 93 percent of the money heading that way.

The moneyline has not yet been released but New England should be decent play since the Patriots are almost always a bigger favorite than this.

Injury Report

Lavonte David -- The Buccaneers’ star linebacker missed last week’s win over the Giants with an ankle injury. He is a key piece to the defense and the team would love to have him back against the Patriots, but that’s in doubt.

Kwon Alexander -- The other one of Tampa Bay’s standout linebackers missed the game with a hamstring injury. He didn’t practice all week and was ruled out before Sunday, so his return seems more questionable than David’s for this one.

T.J. Ward -- Tampa Bay added the former Pro Bowl safety before the season but he missed Sunday’s game with a hip injury. He is another key member of the defense whose availability is up in the air.

Rex Burkhead -- The Patriots running back missed the team’s Week 4 loss to the Panthers with a rib injury. He is a talented back with good pass-catching skills, but New England has James White and Dion Lewis also in that role, so his absence isn’t huge if he has to sit again.

Coaching Angle

These coaches will only have a few days to prepare for this “Thursday Night Football” matchup. Bill Belichick might be the best mind in the entire NFL, which gives New England a big advantage. Dirk Koetter will aim to match wits, but don’t be surprised if the Patriots have a few wrinkles in this one.

The “Thursday Night Football” games have a tendency to be ugly, but don’t be surprised if New England looks like a well-oiled machine in this one. The Patriots coordinators are also among the best in the league, as both Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia could have opportunities to become a head coach in this league sooner rather than later.

Koetter does a nice job with Xs and Os when his offense is on the field, but he must expect the unexpected against New England.

Free ATS Pick

The Patriots are such a good team that the usual worries about playing on the road really doesn’t apply. Brady should be able to have a good game against a Buccaneers defense that may still be missing multiple key players.

The Buccaneers believe they are playoff contenders, and this is the type of game that could be a huge statement win if they are able to pull it off. However, New England is just too tough, and certainly doesn’t want to drop below .500 on the year. Jameis Winston could have some issues in this game, which will allow the Patriots to cruise to the victory.

Take New England to cover the spread, and the “over” is the call as there should be no shortage of scoring in this matchup.

NFL Odds: Patriots 34, Buccaneers 24

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