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The NFC South has turned out to be the best division in football, and it still has a long way to go before the champion is decided. The New Orleans Saints can stay ahead of the rest of the pack with a critical win this week against a divisional foe, but it won’t be easy. The Atlanta Falcons get to host the Saints with a chance to pull within one game of New Orleans as the regular season winds down.
The Carolina Panthers are also in the mix as these three teams figure to keep battling until the final week or two. The Saints have been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL, and will aim to keep it going in this one.
Atlanta has been up and down after advancing to the Super Bowl a year ago and needs a win in order to stay within striking distance of the Saints. The Falcons are currently 7-5 while the Saints sit at 9-3, so it’s a critical showdown.
Watch this regular season Week 14 matchup live on Thursday, December 7, 2017, at 8:25 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Orleans Saints +2
Atlanta Falcons -2
Over/Under 55
Odds Analysis
Atlanta’s record is inferior but it is the slight favorite in this one because of the home field advantage. New Orleans is getting more than 72 percent of the action as the road underdog with the superior body of work in 2017.
The scoring total is really high considering both teams have explosive offenses. The “under” is the more popular choice as both defenses have the ability to step up.
Injury Report
Desmond Trufant — The Falcons’ cornerback missed Sunday’s game against the Vikings with a concussion. Trufant has been a huge part of Atlanta’s defense this season with 29 tackles and two interceptions. Trufant suffered the injury against Tampa Bay in Week 12.
Andy Levitre —The Falcons guard left Sunday’s game against Minnesota in the first quarter after suffering a tricep injury. He is listed as questionable ahead of the game against the Saints. Keep an eye on his status early in the week.
Coby Fleener — The Saints tight end was put on injured reserve after suffering a concussion against the Rams. He was not at practice all week and has a history of concussions which could be the reason that New Orleans deemed the injury serious enough to put the 29-year-old on IR.
Key Stat
142.1. That’s the number of rushing yards per game the Saints are averaging this season, which is much higher than in past years when they were a dominant passing team but didn’t run it well on the ground.
It has been a two-headed approach on the year. Mark Ingram has 166 carries for 837 yards with eight touchdowns, averaging a robust 5.0 yards per carry. While he has been very good, the real “wow” player in the New Orleans backfield has been rookie Alvin Kamara.
He has carried the ball 77 times for 546 yards and five touchdowns for a crazy 7.1 yards per carry. Kamara also has 54 catches for 548 yards and four more scores.
Drew Brees is a star quarterback still even at age 38, but he isn’t needed to carry the entire team any more with such a strong ground game.
Free ATS Pick
The Saints are a really strong team, with a ground game and defense stepping up after years of Brees’ arm keeping the team competitive. The Falcons have not been as consistent, but really have their backs against the wall in this one.
Expect Atlanta to come out swinging as it badly needs a win to stay alive in the NFC South and keep pace in the wild card race. New Orleans might be the better team, but the Falcons should get the best of it in this one with the benefit of the home field advantage.
Take the “over” in a game that could have a wild fourth quarter, and the Falcons to cover the spread.
NFL Odds: Falcons 31, Saints 28
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