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The New Orleans Saints can wrap up the NFC South title and earn home field in the first round of the playoffs with a victory in Week 17. They have to hit the road but it is a winnable matchup against the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New Orleans has been consistent all season long, as its defense has taken a big step forward while the offense remains impressive. The Saints will be solid favorites to capture this victory even though they must go away from home to get it.
The Saints weren’t expected to win the division when the season began but star quarterback Drew Brees has gotten more help than expected and now they can wrap it up with a win. A loss by the Carolina Panthers in the season finale to the Falcons would also give New Orleans the divisional championship, although the Saints would prefer to wrap up the regular season on a winning streak.
This matchup in Week 17 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, December 31, 2017, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Orleans Saints -6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5
Over/Under 49.5
Odds Analysis
The Saints are solid favorites, although noticeably the spread doesn’t quite reach a touchdown margin, which could be a way for the oddsmakers to try to even out the action. That has worked well, as the Buccaneers are getting the majority of the action but only by a 52-48 percent split.
The scoring total is high for an NFL game because both teams can put up points quickly, but the “under” is the more popular choice.
The Saints are listed as -300 on the moneyline, while the Buccaneers were +245 against the spread.
Injury Report
Gerald McCoy — The Buccaneers star defensive lineman returned to the field last week despite being limited by a biceps injury. Even though this game won’t mean anything for Tampa Bay, McCoy pledges to play. He is a key piece as the multi-time Pro Bowler could make Brees’ life difficult.
Michael Thomas — The Saints’ wide receiver is dealing with a hamstring strain suffered in practice last week. He is expected to play as well in this one, but if he is slowed at all by the injury that could make the Saints’ passing attack less potent than usual.
Terron Armstead — New Orleans’ left tackle is dealing with a thigh injury that he suffered in Sunday’s game against the Falcons. He didn’t practice on Wednesday and this is definitely a situation to watch because he is a key piece in keeping Brees protected.
Key Stat
71.9. That’s the completion percentage Brees has accumulated this season, which would be an NFL record if he can stay there for one more week. Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford set the record a year ago with a 71.7 completion percentage but that is likely going down.
Brees hasn’t needed to throw as much as in past years, because the running game behind Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara has been fantastic. But when he’s been called upon, Brees has been impressive. The veteran has thrown for 4,089 yards with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Free ATS Pick
The Buccaneers are looking like one of the most formidable teams in the NFC playoffs. They can help themselves greatly by grabbing the divisional title to insure a home game in the first round, likely against a divisional foe.
New Orleans should have no problem picking up this win. Even though the Bucs are at home, they have the inferior personnel. Take the Saints to win this game and also cover the spread. The “under” is the call as Tampa Bay won’t be scoring as many points as expected against a solid New Orleans defense.
NFL Odds: Saints 27, Buccaneers 20
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