NFL ATS Picks - New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Game Preview

The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills are both in rebuilding mode, and wins may be hard to come by this season. However, they face off with each other in Week 1 of the regular season, so somebody is going to start the season off on a high note.

The Bills are at home and the better team so it’s no surprise they are a solid favorite in this one. Buffalo has a new coaching staff and has undergone myriad changes this offseason, dealing big names to other teams as the front office tries to get the right pieces in place.

The Jets will be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, and there might be snippets of that struggle in this opener against the Bills.

Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup live on Sunday, September 10, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at New Era Field.

Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu

New York Jets +8.5
Buffalo Bills -8.5
Over/Under 40.5

Odds Analysis

The Bills aren’t going to be this big of favorites in many games this season, but the Jets are expected to be so poor that Buffalo is expected to win by more than a score. More than 66 percent of the money has picked the Bills to cover, so the spread could go up before Sunday.

The scoring total is one of the lowest among any games to open the NFL season. The Jets’ offense is expected to be putrid, while Buffalo has more talent but has a run-based attack that keeps the clock ticking. The “under” is the choice by more than 80 percent of bettors early on.

Injury Report

Tyrod Taylor – The Bills quarterback is in the concussion protocol after a preseason injury but expects to be ready for Week 1. Even though Buffalo considered letting him go this offseason, Taylor played pretty well in 2016. He is a dual threat signal-caller that can be tough to defend, and the Bills need him to be healthy. Nathan Peterman would fill in if Taylor can’t go, and even though the rookie is impressing the coaching staff, it would surely affect the spread if he starts. Taylor seems on track to play but keep close eye on the situation.

Jordan Matthews -The Bills acquired the wideout in a trade with the Eagles this offseason, and he’s important because they dealt star pass-catcher Sammy Watkins in a separate trade. Matthews is dealing with a chip fracture in his sternum but expects to play in the opener. The Bills don’t have very many big-time receiving threats, so Matthews’ presence is important to their chances to consistently moving the ball through the air.

Matchup to Watch

Jets’ defensive front against the Bills’ running game -- New York isn’t expected to score a lot of points in this game, so it’s critical for its defensive line to control the game and keep Bills star running back LeSean McCoy in check. The Jets boast Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson within their defensive front, but recently traded star lineman Sheldon Richardson to the Seahawks.

The Jets received a high draft pick in the deal as well as Jermaine Kearse, but the loss of Richardson is a big one. The defensive line is still New York’s strongest position group, and if those players can step up this one could stay closer than expected. Williams sprained his wrist in the preseason, so keep an eye on his availability for this one. Even if he plays, Williams may not be at 100 percent.

Free ATS Pick

The Bills have the better offense and should put together enough drives to gradually take the lead. However, the Jets will be conservative and should be able to stick around against a team that doesn’t have a lopsided talent advantage.

New York is expected to be bad, but will show in this one that it isn’t a laughingstock by losing a close one and covering the spread against Buffalo. Expect a low-scoring affair.

NFL Odds: Bills 20, Jets 17

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