Don’t laugh, but if the Miami Dolphins win this Week 7 matchup against the Jets and the Patriots lose their Super Bowl rematch against the Falcons, the Dolphins with Jay Cutler at quarterback will be leading the AFC East. Somehow the Dolphins are 3-2 on the season even though they are last in the NFL in scoring, averaging just 12.2 points per game. They will be facing a New York team that is 3-3 straight up and 4-2 against the spread.
Watch this regular season Week 7 matchup live on Sunday, October 22, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New York Jets +3.5
Miami Dolphins -3.5
Over/Under 38.5
Odds Analysis
The early money has come in on the Jets in this contest, as Miami is now a 3-point favorite, and that makes some sense considering the Dolphins are struggling to score points. This is already the second meeting between the teams this season, as they met in Week 4 in New York and it was the Jets winning by a score of 20-6. The Dolphins were 5.5-point favorites in that contest and the total was listed at 43. How things have changed, as now the Dolphins are just a 3-point favorite and the total is nearly five points lower, and that is with the game being in Miami. It is hard to argue with the change in the odds, as the Dolphins have very little offense, as all five Miami games this season have gone under the total.
Injury Report
Bilal Powell – The New York running back missed last week’s game against New England with a calf injury. He is being listed as day-to-day, so we really don’t know if he will be ready to go in this contest. The Jets do have a capable replacement, as Elijah McGuire has played well in his place.
Leonard Williams – The New York defensive lineman is listed as day-to-day with a leg injury. He left the game against the Patriots with the injury and his status is unclear for this week’s contest. He is a key player in the middle for New York and considering Miami’s strength is running the ball, his absence would be a big blow.
DeVante Parker – The Dolphins wide out is day-to-day with an ankle injury. He missed last week’s game against Atlanta with an ankle injury. The Dolphins got a nice game from Kenny Stills, as he stepped up and played well in Parker’s absence.
Mike Pouncey – The key injury to keep an eye on for Miami is the one to Pouncey, as he left last week’s game with a possible concussion. Any time a team loses their center it is a big blow, so check the status of Pouncey later in the week.
Key Stat
The Jets have done really well in this series, going 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings against the Dolphins. They have also done really well in Miami, going 16-5 ATS in the last 21 games in Florida. It was thought that the Jets would be the worst team in the NFL this season but they come into this game at 3-3 and have been competitive in all but one of their games this season.
Free ATS Pick
There is no question that the Jets are playing a lot better than almost everyone expected. Most people didn’t think this team would win three games all season, yet they are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS. The Dolphins did look better for a half last week against Atlanta and it was good enough to beat a Falcons team that looks lost. I would have felt better about taking the Jets at 3.5 rather than at 3, but I can’t lay points with Cutler and the Dolphins. I do think there is some value on the total, as neither of these offenses has explosive playmakers. It should turn into a game with both teams trying to establish the run and play tough defense. I will go under the total in this contest.
NFL Odds: Dolphins 17, Jets 14
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