The Philadelphia Eagles were one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL in the regular season. The problem is that they did that most of the way with star quarterback Carson Wentz directing the offense.
Nick Foles played really well in the NFC title game to help get Philly to the Super Bowl, but he is not as good of a quarterback as Wentz. With that in mind, the Eagles’ projected point total is much lower than the team has put up during the season.
The Patriots’ defense has been up and down this season. It is capable of standing tall, but plenty of teams have also moved the ball efficiently. New England’s scoring defense is helped by the fact that the team’s offense is so good that opponents generally have to start drives deep in their own territory.
The Super Bowl will take place on Sunday, February 4, 2018, at 6:30 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Philadelphia Eagles
Over/Under 21.5
Odds Analysis
The Eagles’ projected scoring total is five points lower than New England’s for the Super Bowl. It seems to be pegged correctly as both the “over” and the “under” are currently being wagered on with a -115 vig.
It will be interesting to see if that number slides at all in the coming days before the Super Bowl, but it seems like the oddsmakers hit this one solidly.
Key Stat
28.6. That’s the number of points per game the Eagles scored in the regular season. If Wentz was still around, their points total would have been projected to be much higher and the spread for this game would have been lower.
Instead, the Patriots are a solid favorite and Philadelphia’s over-under has been placed more than a touchdown less than the regular season average. The decided in which side of this bet hits will likely be Foles.
He was underwhelming in the regular season in the final three games after taking over for Wentz. While Foles played well against the Giants, the Eagles scored only 19 total points in the final two games of the season.
It was a mixed bag in the NFC Divisional Round, as Foles was 23-of-30 for 246 yards but didn’t throw a touchdown and Philadelphia only scored 15 points in a close win over the Falcons. However, he comes into this game riding high. Foles threw for 352 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in a blowout win over the Vikings in the NFC Championship game when the Eagles scored 38 points.
The Eagles have a solid offensive line, receiving corps and rushing attack, so the pieces are in place to surpass 21.5 points, but it all will depend on Foles.
The Patriots gave up 20 points last time out. The defense has improved quite a bit as the season has gone along and it will be interesting to see how it fares in this matchup.
Free ATS Pick
The Eagles have a really solid team, and a healthy Wentz could have meant a Super Bowl title. Even though Foles was great last time out, he doesn’t have the track record to do it consistently from game to game.
Expect Bill Belichick to design a creative game plan to hold down the Eagles. He is a master at the Xs and Os and has two weeks to get ready for this game. Philadelphia has a great coaching staff as well but Belichick is the best coach in the league.
The “under” is the choice on the scoring total as Philadelphia will not be able to get going as much as hoped. While Philadelphia should be able to move the ball decently, the Patriots should be able to stiffen up in the red zone and force a lot of field goals.
NFL Odds: Patriots 24, Eagles 16
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